Saudi Arabia Repeats Its Mistakes… Risks in the Face of a “New Yemen”

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Once again, Riyadh misjudges the capabilities of the “Ansar Allah” movement and fails to read the power dynamics resulting from the inability of the American-British “Guardian of Prosperity” alliance and the European “Aspides” mission to lift the partial blockade imposed by Sana’a on Israel.

Consequently, the Saudi leadership risks resuming war with its southern neighbor through the gateway of normalization with Israel, having made a similar miscalculation a decade ago when it declared war, relying on a security protection agreement with the United States. This comes at a time when American, British, and European fleets are unable to protect themselves in the Red and Arabian Seas from Yemeni attacks.

Through its recent stances, this leadership endangers its ambitious projects to make the kingdom the “Europe of the Middle East,” as envisioned by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. These projects, including the already precarious Red Sea project “NEOM,” could suffer a fatal blow, potentially undermining the comprehensive “Vision 2030” development plan for Saudi Arabia. Yemen has not only become a significant regional player in the surrounding geopolitical landscape, but for the first time in modern history, its strategic location and investments have enabled it to become a partner in global trade security, influencing the economies of major shipping and transit-dependent nations.

It seems the Saudi leadership has not learned from the failure of its prolonged war on Yemen and its repercussions on the domestic front, particularly the attack on Aramco facilities in 2019, which Saudi Oil Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman described as the “most difficult day” of his life. This time, renewed aggression against Yemen will not only jeopardize the Saudi economy but could impact the entire industrial world, with the potential destruction of vital facilities in Saudi Arabia representing just a glimpse of what could happen. Yemen possesses the capabilities to target all critical facilities in the kingdom with destructive power and the ability to evade air defense systems.

Saudi Arabia also seems unaware of Yemen’s acquisition of hypersonic missile production lines and its development to achieve speeds exceeding “8 Mach” (Mach = 1,224 kilometers per hour), according to intelligence reports. Meanwhile, American concerns grow over Yemen reaching a stage where the seconds between survival and death for American officers and soldiers on aircraft carriers and destroyers—transitioning from formidable forces to terrified and hesitant entities—are eliminated. Additionally, Saudi Arabia appears oblivious to the tense atmosphere among American officers and soldiers, as well as the constant anxiety resulting from Yemeni attacks, as reported by the Associated Press quoting Eric Bloomberg from the USS Laboon. Bloomberg highlighted the immense danger and threats faced by ships, and Pentagon officials discussed caring for sailors upon their return to the United States, including counseling and treatment for potential post-traumatic stress disorder, reflecting the severe fear among European (Greek) sailors who reportedly fired repeatedly at stars in the sky, mistaking them for Yemeni drones. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has not grasped the reality that the “Resistance Axis” will not allow the defeat of Palestinian resistance, and the robust coordination between its components, particularly between Yemen and Iraq in targeting Israeli facilities and others in the Mediterranean, remains strong.

Therefore, Saudi leadership appears headed for new losses by rejecting Yemeni advice and ignoring warnings from “Ansar Allah” leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi in recent weeks, where he stressed that “Yemen will not accept normalization as a threat to its national security.” This prompted al-Houthi to issue his sternest threat yet on the occasion of the Islamic New Year, warning of targeting vital facilities in Saudi Arabia, akin to disabling Yemeni facilities and complying with American demands to pressure for the transfer of Yemeni banks from Sana’a to Aden. The speech, described as the clearest and boldest in over a decade, left Riyadh with two choices: either comply with the peace requirements between the two countries, or Yemen will be forced to address the grievances of its people by practically applying the coordinates published by Yemeni “war media” showing facilities and infrastructure targets, such as “airport for airport, port for port, and bank for bank,” as al-Houthi stated.

Meanwhile, the United States is working to link Yemen’s economic and humanitarian issues, referred to as the “roadmap,” with the Red Sea attacks file, recently adding the detainees held by Sana’a. Washington is utilizing all available pressure tools, including repeated attempts to mediate with competing external parties, most recently a meeting between U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking and the Chinese ambassador to Saudi Arabia last week, aiming to mediate with Yemeni leadership for a lucrative deal to halt attacks in the Red and Arabian Seas. This includes additional flights from various destinations, payment of Yemeni employees’ salaries, the transfer of the central bank to Sana’a, and other benefits.

Through its recent stances, Riyadh is risking its ambitious projects to make the kingdom the “Europe of the Middle East.”

Despite Yemen’s military readiness and preparations, it has not severed communication with other parties and has responded positively to mediation attempts. However, instead of engaging with peace efforts, Riyadh detained Yemeni pilgrims, only responding to their return home after a threat from Sana’a. This Saudi action, among others, seems to align with American strategies that manipulate internal and economic factors as compensation for military shortcomings in the Red and Arabian Seas, paving the way to use these elements to pressure Sana’a into lifting its partial blockade on Israel.

Indicative of the immediate impact of al-Houthi’s threats, sources told “Al-Akhbar” that the Saudis contacted Yemeni leadership expressing surprise at the tone of al-Houthi’s speech, affirming their readiness to revert to the pre-October 7 status quo and comply with all Yemeni demands, especially the “roadmap.” The sources added that “Yemen will not close the door on political initiatives and considers humanitarian demands a natural right of its people, not subject to any bargaining. It prefers political solutions over other options, resorting to them only when necessary.”

**Source:** Al-Akhbar Lebanese Newspaper