British Report: Houthi Attacks and Red Sea Calm Linked to Gaza; Shipping Companies Face Uncertainty Due to Regional Tensions
NYN | Reports and analyses
The British newspaper Lloyd’s List has reported that the ongoing operations by Yemen’s Houthi government forces in the Red Sea are closely tied to the ceasefire in Gaza, a development that may be delayed given the current circumstances.
The newspaper, which specializes in maritime affairs and shipping, noted that some companies continue to prefer crossing the Red Sea. However, determining when ships that have changed their routes will return remains uncertain due to the ongoing conflict.
In a recent report titled “100 Ports: Uncertainty in the Red Sea Casts Shadows Over Port Forecasts,” the newspaper explained that “there is no clearly defined path for the return of ships that have rerouted to the Bab al-Mandab Strait,” describing the situation as “completely new, extremely frightening, and highly dangerous.”
The report stated that analysts agree that a ceasefire or de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas is the first step to reducing Houthi attacks on shipping. However, the issue, according to the report, is that “analysts do not expect tensions in the Middle East to ease anytime soon.”
The report quoted Zoë Chatchio, an intelligence analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at *Dragonfly Intelligence*, saying, “It seems unlikely that a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel will be reached in the next few months.”
Chatchio added that if a large-scale regional war breaks out, “it is likely that the Houthis will increase the frequency of their attacks on commercial ships and against Israel.”
The report pointed out that any escalation or further expansion of the conflict could worsen the security situation in the Red Sea. It added that “for companies that have rerouted to avoid the Red Sea, the question of when they will return to these routes remains difficult to answer.”
The report quoted a spokesperson for Hapag-Lloyd as saying, “We are not the ones to determine how safe the situation is.” The report further noted that “since companies have different perspectives on risk, it will ultimately be up to each company to decide when it is safe to resume operations in the Red Sea.”
The report highlighted that “safety is a top priority for the return of normal operations in the Red Sea, but precisely defining safety is challenging, making it difficult to chart a path toward normalization.”
The report also mentioned that “the variation in risk assessments among different companies reflects the current situation; although many ships have been rerouted, about 200 ships still cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait weekly.”
