U.S. Report: Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea Challenge American Deterrence in the Region

NYN | Reports and analyses

The Gulf Arab States Institute in Washington has stated that the attacks by Sanaa government forces supporting Gaza, targeting ships linked to Israel in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf, have put U.S. deterrence in the region to the test.

The institute’s report explains that “Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in and around the Red Sea have significantly impacted the structure of U.S. deterrence, placing it under severe strain. This has undermined Washington’s reliability as a trusted security provider at the regional level,” emphasizing that this tense situation reflects the serious looming threats to the security of Middle Eastern waters and the urgent need to intensify efforts to achieve coordination among forces.

Regarding the risks of faltering deterrence, the American institute notes that the regional repercussions of the Gaza war, including the need to secure international shipping routes and protect Israel from attacks, have prompted the United States to bolster its military presence in the region.

The report adds that “since November 2023, Washington has embarked on a massive military buildup in Middle Eastern waters, deploying high-value naval assets such as the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Ohio-class strike group.”

The report also mentions that “U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has twice extended the deployment of the aircraft carrier (IKE), amounting to a rare nine-month combat deployment before ordering the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to take over deterrence duties in Middle Eastern waters.”

Furthermore, the report notes that “with Washington on high alert, as Iran delays a military response against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has also set its course for the U.S. Central Command area of operations. This reflects the pivotal role played by carrier-based fighter aircraft in America’s defensive architecture.”

The Gulf Arab States Institute in Washington adds, “However, despite Washington’s extensive efforts and displays of force aimed at repelling Houthi attacks on commercial shipping through Operation Sentinel Prosperity and weakening the Houthis’ offensive capabilities through Operation Poseidon Archer, the limits of traditional American deterrence are clear.”

The report states that “Houthi strikes on commercial shipping have seen a significant escalation since the beginning of the summer, after a brief hiatus in previous months. This escalation highlights the group’s ongoing strategic determination and its military resources that support asymmetric naval warfare operations.”

The report adds that “the continued Houthi attacks raise growing questions about the credibility of the United States as a reliable security guarantor, which could affect confidence in its role as a regional security force.”

The report notes that “the focus of Combined Maritime Forces and Task Force 154 on readiness exercises, training, and legal competencies, even in the face of credible and sustained Houthi threats to commercial shipping and regional stability, underscores the well-intentioned but ineffective approach Washington has adopted.”

The Gulf Arab States Institute in Washington concludes its report by affirming that “the weakened image of the United States may prompt its regional partners to question the strength of the U.S. military, potentially harming the appeal of Washington-led security initiatives such as the Combined Maritime Forces.”