The Cradle: Riyadh Lost Southern Yemen and Seeks to Compensate by Confronting Abu Dhabi Off the Battlefield

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The American magazine The Cradle reported that after losing the battlefield in southern Yemen to the UAE, Saudi Arabia is resorting to what it describes as “backstage arenas” in the Gulf and other Arab countries, in an attempt to counter Emirati influence through political and regional means, after failing to reverse the balance of power on the ground.

The report provides an analysis of a new phase of rivalry within the former coalition camp, placing events in southern Yemen within a broader context of regional repositioning, where the conflict is no longer confined to Yemeni fronts but has extended to networks of alliances and alignments in the Gulf and the Arab world.

Battlefield Loss… Shift to Indirect Confrontation

According to the magazine, Riyadh has effectively lost the battle in southern Yemen, referring to its failure to curb the expansion of UAE-backed forces through its local proxy, the Southern Transitional Council.

With no realistic way to change this situation militarily, Saudi Arabia—according to the report—has chosen to pursue alternative pressure channels by reorganizing its regional relationships and leveraging issues outside Yemen to balance Emirati superiority.

The Cradle describes this shift as a move from direct confrontation to a “low-intensity” struggle, where battles are conducted away from traditional frontlines and with political and diplomatic tools.

Reengineering the Gulf… Attempting to Isolate Abu Dhabi

The magazine notes that Saudi Arabia is seeking to reshape its Gulf alliances, following what it sees as an “Emirati coup” against the Riyadh-backed coalition in southern Yemen, through empowering the Southern Transitional Council to establish independent ground realities.

Observers cited by the magazine noted that a Saudi-Qatari summit served as a subtle Saudi message aimed at reengineering the Gulf scene, attempting to isolate the UAE or limit its regional maneuverability.

However, these same observers consider it premature to speak of Riyadh’s ability to isolate Abu Dhabi, given the lack of clear and stable Saudi principles in its Gulf relationships.

The Paradox of Closer Ties with Qatar… Serving Other Agendas

The magazine highlights a striking paradox: any Saudi-Qatari rapprochement—even if realized—will not actually isolate the UAE from its Gulf surroundings. Instead, it may ultimately serve U.S.-Israeli agendas in the region, by reshuffling alliances in a way that ensures continued Western influence and control over the pace of regional tensions.

According to this view, the Gulf-on-Gulf struggle is part of a larger picture orchestrated from outside the region, where local calculations intersect with broader international strategies.

Washington Pulls All the Strings

Under this headline, The Cradle points out that Washington exploits all contradictions, benefiting from the rivalry between its allies.

As another example, the magazine notes Saudi Arabia’s hosting of Sudanese army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, attempting to trade any Saudi gains in Sudan—against the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces—for a softer Emirati stance in Yemen.

However, according to the report, this trade-off has not yielded results, reflecting the limits of Saudi ability to impose its terms outside Yemen, even when leveraging sensitive regional cards such as Sudan.

Contradictory Support… The Illusion of U.S. Cover

The magazine also highlights the paradox that Washington supports the UAE position in southern Yemen while simultaneously backing Saudi positions in Sudan, giving both Gulf capitals the impression that it fully supports them in all arenas.

This approach, the report notes, creates a strategic illusion for both parties and keeps the rivalry unresolved, ensuring the continued necessity of a U.S. role as mediator and guarantor of balance.

Emirati Advance and Limited Saudi Options

The Cradle concludes that Saudi Arabia’s cautious response to strong UAE moves in southern Yemen—through Abu Dhabi-supported militias—reflects the reality that the UAE has advanced several steps ahead of Saudi calculations.

This advance is not limited to military progress but extends to political influence and the development of local tools, making it extremely difficult for Saudi Arabia to regain the initiative.

A Wider Conflict… Southern Yemen as the Main Stage

The magazine emphasizes that the Saudi-UAE rivalry is not new, but it appears on regional and international stages as a rising influence struggle, sometimes described in Western circles as a personal and political competition between the leaderships of the two countries.

The key conclusion, according to the report, is that southern Yemen has become a revealing arena of this conflict, and the fragmentation of the former coalition camp deepens its crisis, while Sana’a government forces observe this division as a natural outcome of alliances based on conflicting interests.

Ultimately, the The Cradle report reveals that the battle for southern Yemen was not only contested on the ground but also has repercussions across the entire region. Riyadh is attempting to compensate for its battlefield losses with external political moves, while Abu Dhabi consolidates its gains amid skillful U.S. management of contradictions and an open-ended struggle for influence with no clear end in sight.