U.S. Institute: No Real Emirati Withdrawal from Yemen… and Clash with Saudi Arabia Likely to Escalate
Redeployment Instead of Withdrawal Keeps Tension Hotspots Smoldering Between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh
NYN | Reports and Analyses
A prominent academic researcher has affirmed that the Emirati announcement of reducing its presence in Yemen does not reflect a genuine withdrawal as much as it represents a strategic redeployment, amid deepening and growing competition with Saudi Arabia over influence, warning that this confrontation is likely to intensify in the coming phase.
This came during a seminar organized by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) in Washington, D.C., where Bernard Haykel, Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, presented an analytical reading of the nature of the Saudi-Emirati conflict in Yemen and its regional repercussions.
Redeployment, Not Withdrawal
Haykel explained that the reduction of the UAE’s military presence in Yemen does not mean exiting the scene, but rather indicates a shift in the tools and methods of engagement, with continued political and security influence—keeping points of friction with Riyadh alive “under the ashes and sometimes above them.”
He noted that competition between the two sides has become more explicit, having moved from apparent coordination to an open conflict of interests within the Yemeni arena.
External Leverage and Expanding Arenas of Conflict
The researcher revealed that the dispute has entered a phase of “seeking leverage through external powers,” arguing that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s request to former U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene in the Sudan file constituted direct pressure on Emirati interests, prompting Abu Dhabi to activate influential cards in Yemen.
He added that the conflict is no longer confined within Yemen’s borders, but has expanded to include the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, within the framework of a broader strategic competition between two conflicting visions of regional influence.
Enduring Confrontation and Local Proxies
The seminar concluded that the alliance which began under the banner of “restoring legitimacy” has turned into a long-term conflict, in which neither party sees an interest in making concessions to the other—making continued confrontation between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi highly likely.
Observers also stressed that this rivalry reinforces the growing conviction that external ambitions are the primary driver of the aggression, while “local actors” are used as fuel in open regional battles whose chapters are expected to be prolonged.
