National Interest: Diverging UAE and Saudi Agendas in Yemen Collapse Coalition and Open Door to Prolonged Regional Conflict

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The American magazine The National Interest revealed that overlapping interests and ambitions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia in Yemen have led to the collapse of the coalition that had led the war for years. The magazine noted that the conflict between the two sides is no longer confined to Yemen, but is moving toward a long-term phase that could extend across the entire region and redraw alliances in the Middle East.

UAE: A Maritime Influence Project from Bab al-Mandab to Socotra

The magazine explained that Abu Dhabi has spent more than two decades building a strategic network of influence across key maritime corridors. Yemeni ports, coastlines, and islands have formed the cornerstone of this project, stretching from the Bab al-Mandab through Aden and Mukalla to Socotra.

Saudi Arabia: Yemen as an Influence Complex and “Unrealistic” Fears

In contrast, the magazine stated that Riyadh’s priorities in Yemen are linked to what it described as a deeply rooted “influence complex” among Saudi decision-makers. This mindset, according to the magazine, is justified through security concerns about Yemen that it characterized as exaggerated and unfounded.

Competition Beyond Yemen: Egypt, Washington, and the Normalization File

The report pointed out that Yemen is not the only arena where Saudi-Emirati competition is intensifying. Other key areas of friction include:

• Egypt, viewed as an indispensable strategic regional ally for both sides.

• Competition to win favor in Washington, D.C. and consolidate influence within American decision-making circles.

• Relations with Israel, where the UAE has established an open and strong relationship, while Saudi Arabia—according to the magazine—operates through discreet channels and prefers to avoid an overt public partnership.

The Horn of Africa: A Race for Influence on Both Sides of the Red Sea

The magazine further emphasized that rivalry between the two capitals extends to countries in the Horn of Africa, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE each favor alliances with different actors on both sides of the Red Sea, as part of a broader competition for influence encompassing Yemen and other regional states.

Warning: Escalation Could Complicate the Region and Reshape Alliances

The National Interest warned that underestimating the current dispute between Saudi Arabia and the UAE could prove costly, particularly in the Yemeni file. If the confrontation spirals out of control, it could further destabilize an already fragile and turbulent region, directly affecting Gulf states and leading to a reconfiguration of alliances across the Middle East.