Strategic Report: The Red Sea – Sana’a’s Winning Card

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

A report issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy at the end of last week raised concerns over the growing influence of Sana’a’s forces (the Houthis/Ansar Allah) in the southern Red Sea. It warned that the threat facing Israel-linked vessels has “never truly disappeared” and is instead moving toward further escalation amid a clear inability of international forces to establish any form of deterrence.

The report confirmed that the recent attacks, which resulted in the sinking of the MV True Confidence (formerly referred to as Magic Seas) and MV Eternity, demonstrate the increasing freedom of movement and operational capabilityenjoyed by Sana’a’s forces in conducting maritime operations, due to the ineffective presence of international military assets. The European “Aspides” mission consists of only three naval units, while the intermittent U.S. presence in the Arabian Sea has had no noticeable deterrent effect.

The Institute considered the recent operations to be calculated and carefully coordinated escalations, aimed at projecting power and imposing new strategic equations. It noted that vessels indirectly linked to Israel may soon require military escorts if they continue to transit the Red Sea without any improvement in the current security landscape.

The report also pointed out that Sana’a’s forces have continued to monitor maritime traffic closely, even during the relative calm following the ceasefire with the United States in May. The Houthis have relied on direct threats against shipping companies as part of a deliberate strategy to maintain a visible presence in the Red Sea.

The Institute concluded with a warning that the Houthis (Ansar Allah) possess both the capability and the will to sink additional vessels in this vital maritime corridor—one that is not only critical to commercial shipping, but also serves as a strategic supply route for U.S. military operations in the Middle East.