The Middle East at a Crossroads: Why Is Iran Preparing—and Will the Arabs Pay the Price?
NYN | Articles
By Dr. Shatha Sakher
The Middle East is currently witnessing a rapidly escalating state of military and political tension—arguably the most dangerous in years—amid growing signs that the United States may be preparing to launch simultaneous strikes against Iran and its allies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. Such a scenario would further complicate the region’s already complex military and diplomatic landscape.
Iran’s internal preparations suggest that the leadership is well aware of the potential threat. Reports indicate that authorities are stockpiling food and securing shelters. On the military front, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard continues to move ballistic missiles and drone units to mobile locations that are harder to detect, while intensifying camouflage operations to shield its arsenal from potential airstrikes. Iran is also boosting its readiness to retaliate swiftly—possibly by targeting U.S. bases in the region or Israeli interests.
Iran possesses a significant long-range missile arsenal and has repeatedly claimed over the years to own missiles with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers, capable of reaching Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East. While the precision and effectiveness of these missiles against modern defense systems remain debated, the advancement of drone technology increases Iran’s ability to carry out complex and multi-layered attacks. There is also speculation about Iran possibly acquiring nuclear warheads, which would raise the stakes dramatically. Tehran appears to understand that any future conflict would be multi-dimensional, blending conventional warfare with cyberattacks and pressure on global energy and maritime routes—especially through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing for any potential confrontation by enhancing its defense systems, most notably through the deployment of the Iron Beam laser defense system. This technology complements the Iron Dome and uses laser beams to intercept short-range missiles and drones at a lower cost than traditional interceptor missiles. Such systems could allow Israel to counter large volumes of Iranian attacks, especially if they are coordinated and sustained.
This defensive capability forms part of a broader Israeli strategy: to link the confrontation with Iran to reshaping the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. Israel could use a war with Tehran as a pretext to neutralize Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, aiming to create a new reality in Gaza and weaken Iran’s influence there. Thus, this escalation could serve as a tool to redraw the map of Arab issues, especially the Palestinian cause.
From the Arab perspective, a full-scale war would place Arab states at direct risk, particularly Gulf countries that host major U.S. military bases. These include Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar—the largest U.S. base in the Middle East with over 10,000 troops—alongside key command and communications centers, Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. All of these are potential Iranian targets, placing these countries in a fragile position—torn between hosting American forces and protecting their national interests.
Countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen are likely to become open battlegrounds due to the presence of strong Iranian allies, which would only exacerbate the humanitarian disaster. Meanwhile, Jordan and Egypt would face severe security and sovereignty challenges in securing their borders, along with significant economic fallout and regional instability.
Recent Russian actions, such as the deployment of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad—Poland’s NATO-bordering region—add a new dimension to the equation. This suggests a possible merging of the Ukraine, Middle East, and European security theaters. Practically, it increases the risk that battlefronts may overlap, raising the danger that a single misstep could trigger a multi-front conflict.
Strategically, Moscow sees U.S. engagement in the Gulf as a distraction from its focus on Eastern Europe. However, Russia also has a vested interest in preserving the current Iranian regime, as Iran is a vital partner in counterbalancing U.S. and Western influence, and serves Russia’s strategic energy and market interests.
China is another major player with extensive strategic interests in the region. Beijing is closely monitoring any potential escalation between the U.S. and Iran. A full-blown war in the Middle East could provide China with an opportunity to divert Western attention, limiting Washington’s ability to respond to potential Chinese moves in the South China Sea or Taiwan. Rather than direct military engagement, China may exploit the crisis diplomatically and economically—by strengthening ties with Iran, securing energy supplies, and leveraging global market volatility for its own benefit—while avoiding direct confrontation with the United States.
Key flashpoints to watch include:
The nature of targeted sites,
The extent of Iran’s retaliation,
The threat level to critical maritime routes,
The scale of Israeli involvement and its use of offensive and defensive capabilities, and
The reaction of global powers like Russia and China—especially if support moves beyond the diplomatic to military or logistical assistance.
Finally, accidental events, such as the downing of a civilian plane or an unintended strike on a third country, could rapidly escalate the situation from a limited confrontation to a regional—and possibly global—conflict.
The indicators to monitor in the coming phase go beyond missile movements, aircraft activity, or traditional military exercises. They include non-military dimensions that reveal how seriously the parties are preparing for a large-scale conflict:
The pace and tone of diplomatic communications,
Emergency high-level meetings,
Internal readiness measures like hospital preparations, shelter availability, and city-wide emergency drills.
Likewise, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb are critical in determining the direction of the crisis. Any attempt to block or disrupt these vital waterways would be a strategic turning point, pushing the crisis beyond the regional sphere into a global confrontation.
Dr. Shatha Sakher is a Jordanian writer.
