A Rift Within the Coalition Nears Explosion

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

Political developments are accelerating within the Saudi-Emirati coalition camp in Yemen, amid signs of an unprecedented escalation in internal disputes. This follows Emirati messages described as carrying the tone of direct pressure and threats toward Rashad al-Alimi, head of the so-called “Presidential Leadership Council,” demanding that he exit the political scene and withdraw from the southern governorates.

These developments do not appear to be mere “media sparring.” Rather, according to emerging statements and positions, they reflect a shift from political differences to a phase of outright confrontation within the coalition waging war on Yemen—at a time when the rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is widening and the likelihood of field escalation through their local proxies is growing.

A Strong Emirati Message: “No Presence on the Ground”

In this context, a post by Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, on the platform “X” drew attention. Addressing al-Alimi in a tone widely viewed as an explicit pressure message, Abdullah stated that the council “no longer has a presence on the ground.”

He pointed to what he described as signs of failure, including the council’s inability to hold fully attended meetings, the lack of any military progress, and the resignation of several ministers—suggesting, according to the message’s implications, an erosion of the body’s legitimacy even within its own camp.

The rhetoric did not stop at diagnosis. It moved toward what observers interpreted as a political directive: a call for al-Alimi to “leave the political scene with dignity” and to leave the South to what he termed “self-determination.”

Riyadh Irritated… Saudi Commentators Call It a “Stab in the Back”

On the other side, the writings and positions of Saudi media figures reflect growing anger over the moves of the Southern Transitional Council—aligned with Abu Dhabi—moves that are seen in Saudi Arabia as undermining its camp and creating a new reality on the ground at the expense of the “legitimacy” Riyadh politically supports.

This trend is evident in posts by Saudi journalist Ali al-Arishi on social media, where he argued that the “intransigence of the Transitional Council and its systematic targeting of legitimacy” could push the latter to “defend its legitimacy by all available means,” warning that imposing facts by force could lead to dangerous security repercussions.

Al-Arishi’s rhetoric went beyond warning, reaching what was understood as a hint at the possibility of a military confrontation—a message many followers interpreted as an implicit Saudi signal toward the Transitional Council and its project.

Washington Institute Report: Two U.S. Allies on the Brink of Confrontation

Internationally, a report issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggests that Saudi Arabia and the UAE—both U.S. allies—are nearing an open confrontation in Yemen. This assessment reflects concern that the coalition that led the war on Yemen could turn into a direct rivalry, or at least a clash through proxies.

The report—attributed to researcher April Longley Alley—notes that the takeover by Emirati-aligned forces of the governorates of Hadramawt and Al-Mahrah during December represents a fundamental shift in the balance of the conflict, given the two regions’ strategic, oil, and border significance.

According to the report, tensions in eastern Yemen cannot be separated from the escalating regional disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, including their divergent positions on Sudan—making Yemen a mirror of a broader struggle for influence.

U.S. Moves to Contain the Crisis… Proposed Emergency Gulf Meeting

From a containment perspective, the report points to high-level U.S. efforts aimed at preventing a collision between the two allies, revealing a U.S. proposal to convene an emergency Gulf meeting to calm tensions and lay the foundations for broader, long-term understandings.

The significance of this proposal—according to the analysis presented—is that it comes after indicators suggested the crisis was slipping beyond control, with Washington now viewing a local spark as capable of igniting a confrontation between two regional powers that share influence inside Yemen.

Wadi Hadramawt on the Firing Line… Prospect of Clashes Between Riyadh’s and Abu Dhabi’s Proxies

The most concerning assessment in the report is its expectation of military clashes in Wadi Hadramawt between Saudi-aligned forces and Emirati-aligned forces if containment efforts fail.

According to the same report, the leadership of the Southern Transitional Council is aware of the risks of international isolation should it declare secession, but it may resort to such a step if it feels politically cornered with no exit—meaning that the “escalation option” could become a final pressure card as alternatives narrow.

The Big Picture: The War Camp Fractures… Sana’a Government Forces Watch Their Rivals Crumble

These developments show a clear rise in the level of conflict within the coalition that led the war on Yemen, revealing that contradictions between its regional sponsors are no longer concealable. Instead, they are manifesting in threatening language, public messages, and warnings of confrontation.

As allies quarrel over influence and maps, the most notable outcome is that the front opposing Yemen—long presenting itself as a single bloc—is turning into opposing fronts. This places the region before open-ended scenarios that could begin with clashes between local proxies and extend into broader political and security confrontations.

Ultimately, these developments reflect the fragility of the war coalition itself and reveal that the conflict is no longer directed solely against Yemen, but is consuming its own camp from within—while the forces of the Sana’a government appear to be the primary beneficiaries of the exposure of these fractures and the transformation of the opposing camp into an arena of conflict among its backers.