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After Being Worn Down by the Houthis… The Americans Are Betting on Somaliland and the Southern Transitional Council!

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An analysis published today by The American Enterprise Institute has called for abandoning diplomatic solutions and instead pushing toward direct cooperation with South Yemen and Somaliland—two entities lacking official international recognition—as a new strategy to confront the forces in Sana’a. This marks a shift that reflects the narrowing of options and the failure of traditional approaches.

The analysis, written by American Middle East expert Michael Rubin, implicitly acknowledged the failure of previous U.S. strategies, stating that the Houthi (Ansar Allah) dilemma cannot be resolved unless Washington changes its approach. He proposed what he called an “alliance with the axis of underestimated states.”

With a tone laced with dark sarcasm, Rubin notes that Sana’a only ruled the south for a short period, glossing over the fact that Washington had for decades reiterated its commitment to Yemen’s unity. Now, with events spiraling out of control, the U.S. has begun considering dealing with parts of Yemen as independent political projects—a form of long-term denial that has ended in reality exploding in the faces of American decision-makers.

Rubin called for moving past the “official illusion” and treating the Southern Transitional Council as a de facto authority, while cooperating with Somaliland as an island of stability in a sea of chaos—even though the U.S. has not recognized either entity for decades.

Perhaps most strikingly, the analysis proposes funding the coast guards of Somaliland and South Yemen as the “cheapest solution” to stop maritime attacks originating from Yemen.

Rubin concluded his analysis with what seems like a desperate grasp for a lifeline, describing this step as less costly and more effective than continuing to pour billions into an internationally recognized government that controls little more than a conference room abroad.

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