American Magazine: Will the Houthis Prevail in the Red Sea?

NYN | Reports and Analyses

The American magazine “Responsible Statecraft” published an analytical article discussing the effectiveness of airstrikes conducted by the US and the UK on targets they claim belong to the Sana’a government forces, or those they refer to as the “Ansar Allah Houthis,” in curbing the latter’s attacks on Israeli shipping and entities linked to Israel.

The analytical article, titled “Will the Houthis Prevail in the Red Sea?” indicated that the Sana’a government forces continue their attacks “despite the large and costly coalition led by the United States to combat them.”

The article’s author, Giorgio Cafiero, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and an associate member of the American Security Project, noted that “it is difficult to determine the extent of the damage inflicted by US airstrikes on the Houthi war machine and their ability to continue attacking maritime targets. However, these operations, which have cost the US around one billion dollars according to a new intelligence report, have ultimately failed to deter Ansar Allah, who continue to launch missiles and drones at ships off the Yemeni coast.”

He highlighted a report prepared by Thomas Juneau, an associate professor with an interest in Middle Eastern affairs at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, which stated: “The Houthis have suffered some losses but still retain the capability to disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea.”

He continued: “More importantly, alongside the physical damage they have endured, their ability to continue their attacks in the Red Sea remains unshaken.”

The author agrees with Juneau’s assertion that “the reality on the ground in Yemen is that Ansar Allah have won the war (against the Saudi-led coalition) and the internationally recognized government is not in a position to challenge them, being weak, fragmented, and corrupt.”

The article concluded: “Moreover, today’s data indicates that Ansar Allah is moving to establish themselves as a real authority beyond Yemen’s borders after winning the war against their rivals within Yemen,” emphasizing that this will leave the United States with a difficult list of options in facing this reality.

Since late last year, Sana’a government forces have started targeting Israeli objectives in the occupied Palestinian territories and Israeli-linked ships in the Red and Arabian seas before announcing the extension of their operations to part of the Indian Ocean. Recently, they announced the beginning of the fourth phase of escalation against ships “even in the Mediterranean” to support Palestinians in Gaza. They affirm that their operations against “Israel” will continue, conditioned on “ending the aggression and lifting the siege on Gaza” to halt their military operations “supporting Gaza.”

In response, the US and the UK launched airstrikes on Yemen, prompting the Sana’a government forces to announce that their operations would include targeting American and British commercial and military ships in retaliation for what they called “American-British aggression.”

On February 19, 2024, the European Union announced the launch of a military operation named “Aspid,” led by Italy in the Red Sea, while the United States announced the launch of an operation named “Prosperity Guardian,” both aimed at countering the attacks by the Sana’a government forces against “Israel.”