Amid Accusations of Risk Inflation… Maersk Transits Bab el-Mandeb While Return Remains Pending
First Danish Ship Passage Through the Red Sea Exposes the “Yemeni Threat” Narrative and Reveals Shipping Companies’ Record Profits
NYN | Reports and Analyses
In a development with significant economic and political implications, Danish shipping giant Maersk announced the successful first passage of one of its vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, following a long period of suspension and rerouting via alternative routes.
The transit, carried out by the vessel Maersk Cybaroc between 18 and 19 December 2025, represented, according to observers, a practical test of the widely circulated claims regarding the “danger” of navigation in the Red Sea. At the same time, it raised questions about why shipping companies continue to delay a full return.
Successful Transit… Caution Raises Doubts
Maersk confirmed in an official statement on its website that it implemented the highest safety standards to ensure the security of both crew and cargo during the passage through Bab el-Mandeb.
Despite the clear operational success, the company emphasized that it is still exercising “caution” in resuming regular Red Sea operations—a stance maritime analysts consider disproportionate to the new on-the-ground reality.
This discrepancy between the successful transit and the hesitancy to fully return has led international maritime organizations and independent experts to scrutinize shipping company policies, particularly given what these entities describe as “excessive profiteering” from the crisis.
BIMCO: Risks Are Exaggerated… Return Closer Than Ever
In this context, a recent report by BIMCO—the world’s largest international shipping organization headquartered in Copenhagen—shed light on another aspect of the crisis.
The organization accused major global shipping companies of deliberately exaggerating the risks of Red Sea navigation to secure direct financial gains.
An analysis published by the maritime-focused platform TradeWinds noted that these companies inflate the “risk balloon” to justify higher fees, even though the return of vessels is closer than ever, especially with Sana’a forces committed to halting operations in line with the Gaza agreement.
Record Profits Behind the “Yemeni Threat” Narrative
The maritime news site gCaptain reported that the shipping sector achieved unprecedented profits by the end of this year.
According to the site, daily profits for oil tankers surged by 467%, while LNG shipping costs increased more than fourfold.
In this context, Maersk had already imposed additional charges on its services in July, benefiting from rerouting vessels along the longer and more expensive Cape of Good Hope route.
ING: Return Delayed to Protect Profits
Rico Loman, Chief Economist at Dutch banking group ING, described the ongoing situation as a deliberate attempt to delay a rapid return to the shorter Red Sea route in order to protect the exceptional profits shipping companies have earned in recent months.
This view aligns with reports from Marine Insight and the Captain Platform, which confirmed that a full resumption of navigation would immediately lead to a sharp drop in prices and release of previously lost capacity—a scenario that does not serve the interests of shipping “tycoons” at present.
Ships Pass Safely… Exceptions Linked to Israeli Occupation
A BIMCO study revealed that vessels from Russia, China, and most other countries transit the Red Sea smoothly and safely, undermining the narrative of a “comprehensive threat” to international navigation.
The organization noted that the main challenges—prior to the halt in operations—were largely limited to ships and tankers associated with the Israeli occupation entity, or those insisting on calling at occupied Palestinian ports despite repeated warnings linked to crimes in Gaza.
According to BIMCO, any breach of the Gaza agreement could place these “greedy” tankers in double jeopardy, especially with anticipated declines in crude oil tanker demand once the shipping lane stabilizes.
Cape of Good Hope Route… Profits Companies Do Not Want to Lose
The organization estimates that stabilizing navigation through Bab el-Mandeb would deliver a major blow to the crude oil tanker sector by reducing demand and prices. Analysts suggest this explains the persistence of some companies in delaying the return to protect high profit margins provided by the longer route around Africa.
Breaking the Deadlock: CMA CGM Announces Return via Suez
Meanwhile, signs of breaking this “manufactured deadlock” emerged from the French side.
CMA CGM announced the reactivation of its strategic Indamex line, connecting India and Pakistan to the United States via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, starting in January.
The intelligence platform Xeneta, specialized in shipping analytics, considered this move a “clear signal” of the approaching full return of container vessels to Bab el-Mandeb, offering up to two weeks saved compared to alternative routes.
Political Risks… Profits Are the Real Driver
Between the successful Maersk Cybaroc transit and analyses by BIMCO, gCaptain, and ING, a consensus emerges among media and analysts: the current shipping crisis reflects an artificially created capacity shortage and inflated prices.
The evidence indicates that the delay in resuming normal operations is less about actual risks and more about maximizing profits before natural navigation restores a competitive reality and returns prices to previous levels.
In this context, the Red Sea—according to the facts—remains a safe corridor for those who avoid mixing commerce with politics, while Sana’a government forces have become a decisive factor in enforcing new navigation dynamics, rapidly exposing the weakness of the narrative long used to justify unprecedented profits under the banner of the “Yemeni threat.”
