British Report: STC Expansion Upends Southern Dynamics as Saudi Arabia Retreats and the UAE Takes Full Control

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The Guardian indicates that the anti-Sana’a coalition is experiencing unprecedented fragmentation amid growing tension between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the distribution of control in areas jointly administered throughout the years of war.

According to the report, the entry of Emirati-funded Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces into Hadhramaut and then Al-Mahrah has reshuffled the situation, especially since this is the first time in decades that the STC has imposed full control over all eight southern governorates.

The newspaper asserts that the advance of roughly 10,000 STC fighters into Hadhramaut marked a decisive turning point that pushed the internal coalition conflict to the surface and reinforced Saudi perceptions that influence is being steadily stripped away.

It adds that this development was seen as a pivotal moment that triggered a silent dispute between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over Yemen’s future and post-war arrangements.

The Guardian believes this rapid expansion deepens the coalition’s fragility and presents the UAE as the most organized and assertive actor in the south—contrasted with a clear Saudi retreat.

Wide Saudi Withdrawal: Admission of Defeat or Strategic Repositioning?

The newspaper considers the successive Saudi withdrawals from key sovereign sites—such as the Ma’ashiq Palace, Aden Airport, the Badr military base, and Mayun Island, and earlier from Hadhramaut and Al-Mahrah—as reflecting political and military contraction that goes beyond mere tactical redeployment.

The Guardian describes this pullback as akin to an implicit admission of defeat in the race for influence with the UAE, especially since Riyadh has effectively exited all eight southern governorates, leaving the field open to the UAE-aligned STC.

Citing diplomatic sources, the newspaper notes that Saudi Arabia now faces a difficult test, having lost its most important cards in the south, while a growing sentiment emerges within decision-making circles that the UAE has secured the southern landscape with little to no resistance.

A Project for a Southern State: Geopolitical Risks and Real Possibilities

The report suggests that the UAE-backed STC expansion could pave the way for a unilateral declaration of a southern state, despite international reservations and complex geopolitical risks.

The Guardian points out that Abu Dhabi gave the green light for the STC to take control of the state-owned oil company Petromasila—Yemen’s largest oil-producing entity—which the newspaper describes as “a decisive economic and political leverage card.”

The paper expects the STC to pursue a self-determination referendum in the coming phase—a move reminiscent of historical separation scenarios—with the likelihood of drawing mixed regional and international reactions.

Meanwhile, the United Nations and several Western countries officially oppose Yemen’s partition but are monitoring developments with concern amid mounting indications that the UAE is steering the south toward a new political reality.

Intensive International Contacts with the STC… and Exploring Relations with Russia

The newspaper reveals active Western diplomatic efforts, noting that Western officials held direct talks with STC President Aidarous al-Zubaidi to discuss his future direction, including potential relations with Russia and the council’s stance toward confrontation with Sana’a forces.

Information suggests these meetings were intended to understand the coming phase, especially given the strategic shifts in the south and the decline of Saudi influence—and what this may mean for regional balances.

A New Regional Landscape: The UAE Ascends as Saudi Arabia Recedes

The report concludes that the Saudi–UAE rift has become evident in the management of the Yemen file, with the UAE emerging as the most influential actor and the ultimate decision-maker in the south, while Saudi Arabia faces an unprecedented decline in its traditional influence.

The Guardian argues that this shift extends beyond geopolitical boundaries and reflects a change in the balance of power within the coalition itself—raising the possibility of Yemen’s future being reshaped in a way that neither aligns with Saudi Arabia’s vision nor with pre-war arrangements.

Source: The Guardian (UK)