European Center Acknowledges Sana’a Government Forces’ Dominance in the Red Sea

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

A European strategic study has recognized a new reality established by Sana’a government forces in the Red Sea, emphasizing that the logistical and military developments demonstrated by these forces have become a decisive factor in maritime security equations. According to the European perspective, this situation provides a direct justification for calls to strengthen naval cooperation between European powers, Saudi Arabia, and other Red Sea littoral states.

The study, prepared by the Hague Center for Strategic Studies, reflects an advanced Western understanding of the ongoing transformation in one of the world’s most important maritime corridors. At the same time, it reveals growing European concern over the decreasing ability to exert direct influence in a theater where Sana’a now holds the operational keys.

2026… Red Sea Becomes a European Priority

The study revealed that the European Union is prepared to give the Red Sea issue top priority in 2026, signaling that current developments have moved beyond mere observation into long-term strategic planning.

It called for enhancing security coordination between European states and the Red Sea littoral countries, focusing particularly on Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and select Gulf states, which Europe perceives as theoretically capable of playing a balancing role against the growing influence of Sana’a forces in the region.

Intelligence First… Digital Security and Supply Chains

The study emphasized that intelligence sharing should form the cornerstone of any upcoming European–regional cooperation, stressing the improvement of communication channels between Gulf states, Egypt, and European countries.

Recommendations were not limited to traditional military dimensions; they also highlighted the need to integrate digital security and supply chain protection into the coordination framework, implicitly acknowledging that Sana’a’s influence extends beyond the sea to the broader structure of global trade.

Coast Guard Support… A Limited European Bet

In seeking tools to counter Sana’a’s influence, the study—prepared by six European researchers—recommended enhancing cooperation between Gulf states and European countries, giving the Red Sea a priority in regional maritime dialogue, and practically supporting coast guard forces aligned with the Saudi-Emirati coalition in Yemen.

However, this approach fundamentally reflects European awareness of the difficulty of direct confrontation, favoring instead indirect measures to attempt to restore balance in a theater that clearly leans toward Sana’a.

Implicit Recognition of Sana’a’s Firepower Control

Despite repeated European calls to limit the Houthis’ capabilities in the Red Sea, the study itself acknowledges that such proposals remain largely theoretical, given the clear U.S. and regional inability to change realities on the ground.

The study points out that the military and logistical capabilities amassed by Sana’a grant it effective firepower control over its territorial waters off the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most sensitive maritime passages, making any counter-move costly and highly risky.

European Concern… and an Unavoidable Reality

The study reflects a shift in European discourse from downplaying developments in the Red Sea to implicitly recognizing the de facto sovereignty established by Sana’a forces.

The call to make 2026 the “year of confrontation” stems not from a surplus of power but from a delayed realization that the balance of deterrence has changed and that the Red Sea is no longer an open arena for external dictates.

In conclusion, the study indicates that European centers—despite differences in political language—are confronting a single fact: Sana’a has become a significant factor in Red Sea security, and any future approach, no matter the plans or alliances involved, will not succeed without taking this reality into account.