European Report: Red Sea Attacks Expose the Collapse of Traditional Deterrence and the Rise of Low-Cost Warfare

NYN | Reports and Analyses

The European outlet Modern Policy revealed in a recent report a notable shift in the nature of maritime conflict following the attacks carried out by the Sanaa government forces on vessels linked to Israel in the Red Sea.

According to the report, these attacks demonstrated that low-cost, asymmetric methods are now capable of challenging advanced Western fleets and reshaping security dynamics in one of the world’s most important maritime routes.

The outlet stated that what is unfolding in the Red Sea represents “a major transformation in the nature of modern conflicts,” signaling a phase in which the effectiveness of traditional military models declines in the face of inexpensive yet highly impactful combat tools.

Low-Cost Weapons Outperform Fleets Worth Billions

The report asserts that the attacks highlighted the effectiveness of asymmetric strategies compared to conventional military power.

While major powers rely on aircraft carriers and destroyers equipped with sophisticated defensive systems, Sanaa forces used explosive drones, ballistic missiles, and low-cost surveillance systems to achieve broad strategic impact.

The report added that “these asymmetric methods have proven capable of disrupting global trade routes and forcing shipping companies to change their routes, despite the U.S. and British military presence in the region.”

New Tactics Surpassing the Old ‘Guerrilla Warfare’ Model

The European report notes that Sanaa forces have developed a modern form of asymmetric operations that combines high flexibility with inexpensive technology.

Unlike the insurgent movements of past decades, Sanaa employed “small drones that are difficult to detect, low-cost precision missiles, simple yet effective sensing and launching systems, and inexpensive tools to target large commercial vessels.”

The report stated: “A single drone can force dozens of global companies to reroute, raise insurance and shipping costs, and create widespread disruption across supply chains.”

Western Technological Superiority Becomes Less Relevant

The Modern Policy report explained that Western naval technological superiority is no longer decisive against small-scale threats, as the advantages of advanced warships fade when the danger comes from small, low-signature, low-cost targets.

It noted that “modern warships lose their edge when confronted with swarms of drones that are difficult to track and can be produced at modest cost.”

A Major Gap in the Defense Doctrine of Major Powers

The report emphasized that the persistence of attacks despite the deployment of U.S. and British naval assets in the Red Sea exposes serious flaws in traditional defense doctrine. Even with advanced air-defense and missile systems in place, attacks continued to hit sensitive targets.

It described this reality as “a structural failure in naval deterrence models,” noting that the challenges posed by Sanaa forces have exceeded the ability of major powers to dictate the course of events.

Power Derived from Economics, Not Firepower

The report stated that the strategic influence of Sanaa forces stems not only from the weapons used but also from their ability to exploit global economic interdependence in the Red Sea. A single attack can “immediately trigger a reassessment of shipping routes, result in sharp increases in insurance costs, alter commodity and freight prices, and spread anxiety across international markets.”

“The fear generated by the attacks produces an economic impact far greater than the direct physical damage to vessels,” the report said.

Toward a Reshaping of the Global Security Order

The report concluded that the Red Sea crisis has exposed the shortcomings of the international security model in addressing irregular threats, affirming that low-cost methods “have undermined the dominance of major powers and revealed the fragility of traditional security structures.”