Eyes Turn to Yemen: Possible Israeli Escalation on Sanaa
NYN | Reports and Analyses
The British Institute for Studies has once again drawn attention to Yemen amid growing fears of renewed confrontation between Israel and the Sanaa-based government.
In a report published yesterday, Chatham House predicted a resumption of conflict between the Israeli occupation and the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), despite the ceasefire in Gaza.
The institute noted that while analyses suggest the Houthis (Ansar Allah) may currently prefer de-escalation, it is unlikely that Israel will back down from its ongoing campaign to undermine the “Axis of Resistance” aligned with Tehran.
“Impact of the Israeli Strikes”
The report added that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, announced on October 9, carries major implications for Middle East security — including its potential impact on the conflict between Israel and the Houthis (Ansar Allah), who control large parts of Yemen.
According to Itay Barlev, an Israeli analyst and managing director at Intel Lab, Israeli airstrikes have damaged Yemen’s infrastructure and temporarily reduced its capacity to import weapons from Iran.
Barlev added that attempts to defeat the Houthis (Ansar Allah) through long-range airstrikes alone are unlikely to succeed.
He explained:
“The Houthis operate a decentralized force based in rugged mountainous terrain, with multiple smuggling routes for resupply. Damaged facilities can resume operations within a month. Previous American campaigns failed to achieve decisive results or significantly weaken Houthi capabilities.”
Farea al-Muslimi, a researcher with Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, said:
“Israeli airstrikes will not weaken the Houthis (Sanaa forces); they will only destroy what remains of the lifelines for ordinary and needy Yemenis.”
“Will the Conflict Continue?”
Al-Muslimi believes that the suspension of Sanaa forces’ attacks will likely hold, for two main reasons:
The Houthis (Ansar Allah) have already achieved their primary goals through earlier attacks in the Red Sea and against Israel — namely, demonstrating their regional and global reach.
Like Hamas, they currently seek to de-escalate the situation.
However, Barlev argues that Israeli attacks on Yemen and the Houthis (Ansar Allah) are likely to resume.
He noted that the long distance and limited intelligence make a decisive victory — like Israel’s over Hezbollah in 2024 — unlikely.
Instead, Israel will likely pursue a prolonged campaign of strategic strikes.
This approach, Barlev added, stems from Israel’s desire to consolidate what it views as its recent successful attacks on Iranian air defenses and nuclear infrastructure.
Sustaining the campaign against the Houthis (Ansar Allah) could prevent them from emerging as a threat comparable to Hezbollah’s earlier role, thereby weakening the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.”
“While Iran remains the head of the axis and Israel’s primary target,” Barlev concluded,
“Israel will simultaneously maintain a steady campaign against the Houthis (Ansar Allah) to prevent them from evolving into the next generational threat.”
