Hebrew Report: Southern Yemen Turns into a Pressure Card in “Israel’s” Hands to Weaken the Influence of the Sanaa Government in the Red Sea

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

Reports issued by Israeli and Western research centers and media institutions—foremost among them Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)—reveal a notable and dangerous development in the course of the ongoing conflict in Yemen’s southern governorates. These reports argue that what is unfolding in those areas has moved beyond an internal dimension to become part of a broader regional struggle linked to reshaping the balance of power in the Red Sea.

The reports indicate that recent moves by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces, backed by the United Arab Emirates, are now directly serving Israeli interests, with the clear objective of undermining the influence of the Sanaa Government, which has recently emerged as an influential actor in maritime deterrence equations and in supporting the Palestinian cause.

The Southern Conflict Exits Its Local Framework

According to the Institute for National Security Studies, the ongoing transformations in southern Yemen reflect a shift in the conflict from an internal dispute among Yemeni parties to a regional arena in which external agendas intersect—foremost among them that of the Israeli occupation entity in the Red Sea.

The institute asserts that these moves are no longer isolated from the regional context, but have become part of security and political arrangements aimed at influencing international shipping lanes and controlling extremely sensitive strategic locations.

Hadramout and the Fracturing of the Riyadh-Aligned Alliance

The Hebrew report views the STC forces’ control over Hadramout governorate as a clear indicator of the disintegration of the fragile Saudi-aligned alliance formed at the start of the war on Yemen in 2015, which includes the internationally recognized Aden-based government.

The American newspaper Al-Monitor supports this assessment, considering that these developments could upend the balance of power within the war alliance and reshuffle the cards among its parties amid growing political and military disputes and contradictions.

Divisions Grant Sanaa a Margin of Advantage

Against the backdrop of these fractures, the reports note that the state of division within the camp of the Aden government and its allies grants the Sanaa Government a temporary advantage, both militarily and politically.

The Israeli assessment points out that this advantage is not limited to battlefield capabilities alone, but also stems from cohesion in decision-making in Sanaa, at a time when other parties suffer from conflicting interests and dependence on external backers.

The Emirati Bet: A Disciplined Southern Entity

The Institute for National Security Studies highlights what it describes as a “long-term Emirati bet,” based on building a disciplined southern entity that enjoys direct economic and military support and imposes control over strategic coastlines and ports in southern Yemen.

The institute describes this approach as a development of intrinsic strategic importance, given the direct leverage it provides over maritime shipping lanes and the ability to influence regional balances linked to the Red Sea.

The “Golden Opportunity” from an Israeli Perspective

According to the report, Israeli circles view what is happening in southern Yemen as a “golden opportunity,” represented by the emergence of a southern entity subordinate to Abu Dhabi, controlling the port of Aden and positioned near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

This entity is seen as a geographic and political barrier that can be leveraged to curb influence hostile to Israeli navigation in one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.

Contacts and Coordination with the Occupation

This perspective is reinforced by revelations from the British newspaper The Times, which reported that STC forces sent delegations to meet Israeli officials as part of direct coordination targeting the Sanaa Government.

According to the newspaper, these meetings came in exchange for clear promises of recognition of the occupation entity immediately upon the declaration of southern secession, in an explicit attempt to enter the path of normalization and gain international support through the Israeli gateway.

Demands for Weapons and Military Support

In the same context, Israel Hayom quoted Hebrew sources as saying that talks with representatives of the STC forces included explicit demands for advanced weapons and direct military support to confront the forces of the Sanaa Government.

According to these sources, the Israeli view holds that curbing the Yemeni role in the Red Sea cannot be achieved through airstrikes alone, but requires reliance on “ground forces operating by proxy” for the occupation on the ground.

STC Forces at the Heart of a Regional Project

The reports conclude that the Southern Transitional Council forces are no longer merely a party to an internal conflict, but have become a central component of a regional project led by Abu Dhabi, on which the occupation entity is betting to redraw security equations in the Red Sea.

This comes in the face of a Yemen that has become—according to the same reports—a difficult factor in the regional deterrence equation, with the rising role of the Sanaa Government in supporting the Palestinian cause, which explains the scale of political and military targeting it faces.

Sources:
Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) – Al-Monitor (USA) – The Times (UK) – Israel Hayom