NYN | Articles
By Ali Watfi
Iran has neither surrendered nor collapsed. Despite the partial success of Israel’s deceptive military operation, the overall campaign failed. What instead emerged was the resilience of the Iranian people and their leadership, their ability to regain the initiative, and the unity shown around the regime and Iran’s peaceful nuclear program — a symbol of national dignity. The goal of toppling the regime, the operation’s ultimate objective, was thwarted. The balance of power shifted, and now all economically and strategically important sites — along with Israeli cities — lie within the reach of Iranian missiles, fluctuating in intensity but constantly present. This is not an exaggeration but a proven reality, clearly visible over the 13 days of war. Even Netanyahu had to appeal to Trump for help, eventually dragging him into the conflict.
With the potential of the conflict with Israel and the U.S. becoming long-term — the worst-case scenario for both Tel Aviv and Washington — trust in American diplomatic promises has eroded globally, especially after the deception suffered by Tehran. Trump, in particular, is under unprecedented bipartisan criticism in the U.S. Congress, which may limit his future foreign policy decisions. Polls show that the vast majority of his supporters were not in favor of a war with Iran.
Then came Moscow’s clear and unexpected stance: describing the situation as a “dangerous escalation that could undermine regional and global security” and stating that “the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East — already mired in crises — has significantly increased.”
Furthermore, serious damage was done to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the credibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the UN Security Council. Therefore, Russia insisted on a collective international response to confront the United States and Israel.
Russia demanded “an end to aggression, and efforts to return to a political and diplomatic path.” This was followed by a Russian signal of potential support to its ally Iran if the attacks continued, clearly conveyed by Vladimir Putin when he received Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi at the Kremlin and asked him to convey his “best wishes” to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
All of this unfolded while the world turned a blind eye to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, where Moscow continues to advance steadily — neither rushed nor delayed — for nearly three years without external facilitation. Washington and NATO have never and will not retreat from supporting Kyiv, at least not beyond media statements. Russia is well aware of this. That’s why Washington mistakenly believed that Moscow had become submissive and wouldn’t dare to oppose it. The discontent of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio over Araghchi’s visit to Moscow and his talks there instead of surrendering to Washington and Tel Aviv was apparent.
Before the ceasefire, Moscow had already declared its support for Iran in a call between their defense ministers. China is also fully aligned, as evidenced by the surprise visit of the Iranian defense minister to Beijing a day after the war ended — coinciding with the Russian defense minister’s presence there.
These are serious steps being taken in response to a blatant act of aggression against a sovereign state whose nuclear program is under the most stringent international monitoring. Using a false report from the IAEA director as justification, Israel moved to redraw its distorted vision of the Middle East, citing partial success in Lebanon and Syria.
So, have they finally learned from Tehran’s fresh and sobering lesson?
Is the world now witnessing the formation of a practical alliance aiming to curb Washington’s and its “spoiled child’s” (Israel’s) unchecked actions, along with their proxies across the savage and developing world? Let us wait and see — the first test will come now that Tehran has reached safety.
As for the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear warheads directly following Araghchi’s visit to Moscow — this left both Israel and the United States in panic. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of Russia’s Security Council (Putin’s deputy), hinted at the possibility of supplying nuclear weapons to some states — and Iran is clearly a candidate. What’s more telling is that many experts refused to comment, which is highly unusual.
This was not just an offhand remark. The situation may be more serious than we imagine. It may be a response to Trump’s doctrine of “peace through strength,” prompting Iran to potentially consider nuclear armament.
Another significant development is the joint initiative by Russia, China, and Pakistan to submit a draft resolution to the UN Security Council condemning the U.S. attack on Iran. All three countries are nuclear powers — joined by North Korea, which is never shy to challenge Washington. Pyongyang has long shared a hostile stance toward the U.S., stemming from decades of confrontation with both Israel and the U.S., and it has previously helped develop Iran’s nuclear program.
Following the ceasefire, Iran emerged in the eyes of the global community as the wronged and victimized party. For that reason, it avoided a major escalation and did not close the Strait of Hormuz — despite threats to do so. That move, though tempting, would have had harsh consequences for Iran itself, which now desperately needs funds for reconstruction after the devastation. It would also have hurt China and other countries reliant on the Strait, potentially turning them against Iran and framing Tehran as the aggressor. Ironically, the main beneficiary of such a closure would be Russia — the largest oil and gas exporter — as Wall Street predicted oil prices could surge to $130 per barrel or more if the Strait were closed.
Still, the threat remains a powerful card for Iran to pressure the United States, especially with Iranian missiles raining down on Israel. This is why Trump, through Moscow and Beijing, urged Iran not to close the Strait — even if Iran were to bomb every U.S. base in the region. A surge in global oil prices would spark a severe energy crisis in the U.S. and Europe, much like in 2022, when average gasoline prices soared to $5 per gallon.
According to Fars News Agency, Iran is preparing for a war with Israel that could last from two to six months, with increasingly devastating strikes the longer it continues. This, in turn, could significantly bolster Iran’s global standing once the war ends — potentially triggering a geopolitical shift across the region after the breaking of the “axis of power” that sought to contain Iran.
Iran’s firm and serious support, along with its steadfastness, forced Washington to halt the war and left both the U.S. and Israel cornered. Their attempt to revert to unipolar dominance and impose a jungle-law approach to international politics, protecting their interests through raw force, has faltered. This mission — though difficult — must be pursued by all sovereign nations facing similar threats from the West.
Russia and China, in particular, must remain alert before the conflict reaches their own cities. Russia has already experienced painful attacks on its homeland less than two months ago. China, meanwhile, will undoubtedly need both Moscow and Tehran in the looming confrontation in the South China Sea.
Syrian writer residing in Russia
