Israeli Expert Rules Out Confrontation With Iran: Protests Do Not Threaten the Regime, No War on the Horizon
An Israeli military expert says Tehran is security- and militarily fortified, warning that any external attack could unite Iranians behind their leadership and ignite a high-cost confrontation.
NYN | Reports and Analyses
An Israeli military expert has ruled out the outbreak of an imminent conflict between Iran on one side and both the occupation entity and the United States on the other, arguing that the ongoing protests inside Iran do not pose a real threat to the stability of the ruling system.
Military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai wrote in an article published by the Hebrew daily Yedioth Ahronoth that Iran’s Supreme Leader enjoys solid security protection based on two main “shields”: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij forces, in addition to a regular army that continues to show clear loyalty to the ruling establishment.
Limited Protests Without Unified Leadership
Ben-Yishai explained that the number of protesters inside Iran remains limited and lacks organization and unified leadership, preventing the movement from forming a genuine threat to state institutions. He noted that this helps explain the relatively low death toll compared with previous waves of protests in 2009, 2019, and 2022.
He added that the diversity of protesters’ demands—most of which focus on improving living conditions—gives Iranian authorities wide latitude to contain the unrest, pointing out that the regime has shown understanding toward some economic demands and is seeking to address them.
Warning Against External Attack
On the regional level, the Israeli expert warned that any military attack carried out by the United States or the occupation entity against Iran could produce the opposite effect, rallying the Iranian people around their leadership, as occurred during the Iran–Iraq war.
Missile Capabilities Raise the Cost of Confrontation
Ben-Yishai noted that Iran has significantly enhanced its missile capabilities, managing to produce more than 2,000 missiles and develop launch platforms capable of inflicting severe damage deep inside the occupation entity and to U.S. interests in the region.
He stressed that any potential military confrontation would be extremely costly and would require broad and complex preparations to absorb the expected counterstrike—preparations that have not yet been completed by either the occupation entity or the United States—making the option of war unlikely in the near term.
