“Middle East Eye”: How Will the New U.S. Administration Handle Houthi Influence in the Red Sea?

NYN | Reports and analyses

The Middle East Eye reported that the upcoming U.S. administration will face serious challenges in addressing the influence of the Sanaa forces and their ongoing attacks on Israel and vessels linked to the U.S. and the U.K., amid concerns from Gulf states over renewed Yemeni strikes and a shaken confidence in American protection.

In an article titled “Will the Next U.S. President Be Able to Curtail Houthi Influence in the Red Sea?” the site outlined potential approaches the incoming administration might take regarding Yemen. The report suggested that “Yemen represented an early test point for the Biden administration’s approach to the Middle East.”

The report noted that “continued U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, dating back to the Obama administration, angered progressive Democrats. In 2020, Biden made ending the war a campaign goal. However, when he took office and criticized Saudi Arabia’s airstrike campaign, it upset Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Furthermore, the U.S. decision to suspend offensive arms transfers and withdraw air defense systems from the kingdom—while it was still under Houthi attacks—increased Saudi Arabia’s doubts about Washington’s security commitment.”

One of the key efforts by the Biden administration to repair relations with Saudi Arabia, according to the report, was to initiate talks to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The site quoted a former senior Arab official as saying, “Biden’s policy on Yemen essentially set the course for much of America’s Middle East actions over the past four years, and everyone will be watching how the next administration handles the Houthis.”

The report confirmed that “the Houthis aim to expand their influence in a way that challenges the U.S. in critical trade routes,” referring to the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait. It added that dealing with the Houthi threat has divided the U.S. foreign policy establishment and caused friction with Arab partners.

The report mentioned that when the Biden administration sought local partners to support its “Operation Prosperity Guardian,” only Bahrain joined the mission.

According to the report, the next U.S. president is expected to face pressure from defense officials to expand operations against the Houthis, although some are wary of escalating the conflict. The site quoted former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Gerald Feierstein, who stated that “the simplest way for the U.S. to stop Houthi attacks is to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.” He added, “If this war ends, the Houthis will lose their pretext for attacks. We saw a significant decline in Houthi attacks during the brief truce in November.”

Feierstein emphasized that a ceasefire would make it easier for the U.S. to convince partners like Egypt and Saudi Arabia to impose financial sanctions on the Houthis.

The report also cited a U.S. official connected to Kamala Harris’s campaign, who stated that “gradual escalation could resonate with her foreign policy team,” while former President Donald Trump might reclassify “Ansar Allah” as a foreign terrorist organization if he wins, which could have humanitarian and economic repercussions for Yemen.

The report highlighted that U.S. partners in the Gulf are reluctant to engage in another war in Yemen. Analysts say that Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s experiences in Yemen led them to question Biden’s approach from the start. Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf affairs expert, said that Gulf countries discourage any military response that is not decisive and swift, asserting that a “limited campaign won’t deter the Houthis in a meaningful way; instead, it might embolden them.”

The report indicated that the Yemen war has tarnished Saudi Arabia’s public image and that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to keep Vision 2030—the program designed to attract foreign investment and tourism—on track, away from the impacts of conflicts and fluctuating oil prices.

The report also noted Saudi concerns that the Houthis could resume missile and drone strikes on the kingdom, which has weakened trust in the American security umbrella. It concluded that internal developments in Yemen could play a significant role in shaping U.S. strategic calculations in the region.