Red Sea Crisis Escalates: Israeli Violations in Gaza Undermine Efforts to Restore Global Shipping Regional Tensions Prevent a Return to Normal Maritime Operations

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

Despite the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, global shipping lanes remain far from a safe and stable environment. The latest analyses from the global trade analytics firm Kpler indicate that the situation in the Red Sea is still extremely fragile.

Regional tension resulting from repeated Israeli violations is directly impacting international trade movements and obstructing any possibility of a near-term return of maritime traffic to normal routes.

A Qualitative Escalation in Maritime Attacks and a Dangerous Shift in Operational Tactics

Since November 2023, the Red Sea has witnessed more than 160 attacks on commercial vessels—a figure that reflects the expanding scope of maritime threats.

While early attacks were less precise and relied on missiles or drones that often missed their targets, the Houthis’ capabilities have gradually advanced to include coordinated attacks combining missiles, drones, surface vessels, and unmanned submarines. This has increased attack effectiveness and doubled the impact on global trade routes. Despite the declared Gaza truce, more than 500 Israeli violations were recorded in just one month, reinforcing experts’ expectations that any de-escalation in the Red Sea will be temporary and unreliable—especially as the Houthis often resume attacks after any significant breach or series of cumulative violations.

Deep Shifts in the Marine Insurance Market and Persistently High Premiums

At the start of the crisis, many insurance companies halted coverage for vessels transiting the Red Sea due to heightened risk levels, leading to sharp increases in insurance premiums.

Over time, and as more accurate data emerged about targeting patterns, insurers began distinguishing between vessels at higher risk—particularly those linked to Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

As a result, the global fleet has split between vessels that continue to transit using intensive security measures and others that avoid the region altogether. Many companies have resorted to armed guards, military escorts, and strict navigation systems to reduce targeting risks.

Despite a relative decline in attack frequency, insurance prices have not returned to pre-crisis levels, as the market now operates on a risk-management basis rather than risk elimination.

Meanwhile, the “shadow fleet”—which transports a large share of crude oil without Western insurance—relies on insurers with limited financial capacity, meaning any major incident may be impossible to compensate.

Cautious Return to Navigation and Rare Transit of Mega Container Ships

In recent weeks, the giant container ship Benjamin Franklin, carrying nearly 17,000 containers, transited the Red Sea—its first passage of such a vessel in two years. Although this move signals some restored confidence in the waterway’s operability, it does not indicate a full return to safety.

Mega ships face far greater operational risks than smaller vessels, and the cost of any attack on such a ship would be environmentally and financially catastrophic. Several global energy companies now rely on intermediaries to split journeys into two phases: bypassing the Red Sea through alternative means and then resuming transport on the other side of the Suez Canal. This system reduces efficiency and increases costs. The report predicts that major shipping companies will not return to the traditional route until late Q2 2025 at the earliest—assuming no new attacks occur.

New Threats Complicate the Landscape and Prolong the Crisis

One of the most dangerous emerging threats is limpet mines—explosive devices that can be attached below the waterline on a ship’s hull and remain undetected for long periods before being remotely detonated.

This type of threat shifts maritime danger from direct attacks to hidden risks that may surface weeks or months after a vessel passes through the danger zone.

Other escalating threats include the use of unmanned submarines, long-range drones, sabotage of undersea cables, attacks on pipelines, rising tensions in the Black Sea and the Arabian Gulf, and the reappearance of piracy in some areas.

These developments have made maritime risk assessment more complex and pushed insurers to merge regional and global risks into a single framework to determine final risk levels.

Direct Impacts on Trade and Supply Chain Efficiency

Global supply chains have shifted to new operational models based on rerouting shipping lanes and increasing travel distances—creating job opportunities in the maritime sector but simultaneously reducing efficiency and raising costs.

Shipping operations now increasingly rely on risk-distribution strategies such as intermediaries or segmented journeys, making a return to traditional routes a complex process that requires long-term political and security stability.

The report notes that the return of mega container vessels is not an indicator of crisis resolution but rather a tentative attempt to gauge risk levels, while maritime operations remain vulnerable to threats such as limpet mines and advanced offensive technologies.

Red Sea Stability Requires Long-Term Calm and Deeper Investment in Risk Management

Available data confirms that the Red Sea will remain a critical hub for global trade and that a return to normalcy is not imminent. Stability requires sustained political de-escalation, a significant reduction in military violations, and sufficient time to build a new risk database.

Until then, insurance prices will remain high, shipping companies will maintain stricter standards for vessels and routes, and the reliance on intensive security measures will continue to ensure navigation with minimal risk. With ongoing Israeli violations in Gaza and evolving military capabilities in the Red Sea, this vital corridor will remain an open zone of tension susceptible to sudden shifts and long-term threats.

Source: Boqsh Observatory + Agencies