Riyadh Clings to De-Escalation with Sana’a and Postpones a “Comprehensive Agreement” Over Fears of Escalation
A report issued by the Arab Center Washington DC reveals Saudi calculations balancing the cost of war, risks to Vision 2030, and competition with Abu Dhabi
NYN | Reports and Analyses
A recent report by the Arab Center Washington DC revealed that the Saudi Arabia still prefers maintaining a “fragile de-escalation” with Sana’a rather than moving toward a comprehensive agreement, amid growing concerns over the consequences of any renewed military escalation.
The Cost of War and the Fear of Attrition
The report explained that the Saudi leadership faces two difficult options: either accept a comprehensive settlement based on the proposal put forward by Ansar Allah, or risk returning to military confrontation, with all the heavy financial and security burdens that would entail.
It noted that renewed military operations could impose additional strain on the Saudi budget at a time when Riyadh is seeking to secure a stable environment for its Saudi Vision 2030 projects and attract foreign investment — making the option of war less appealing at this stage.
Growing Military Capabilities in Sana’a
According to the report, the expanding military capabilities of Sana’a’s forces, particularly in drones and long-range missiles, constitute a decisive factor in Saudi calculations. These capabilities are now able to reach deep into Saudi territory, raising the cost of any potential confrontation and increasing both security and economic risks.
It also warned that any large-scale escalation could negatively affect foreign investor confidence and directly impact the credibility of Riyadh’s economic transformation program.
Saudi–Emirati Competition in Yemen
The report addressed the nature of the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen, describing it as driven by economic and strategic considerations and marked by politically and financially costly maneuvers.
It indicated that Riyadh has allocated around $3 billion to support its arrangements in Yemen, including paying salaries to fighters and public employees in southern areas, as part of efforts to reshape the balance of power and bring armed factions under its direct influence.
Normalization… A Deferred Objective
In a related context, the report noted that normalization with Israel remains a medium-term strategic objective for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. However, this path faces both domestic and external challenges, most notably the need to craft a convincing political narrative for local and broader Islamic public opinion.
Between the option of temporary de-escalation and a comprehensive settlement, Riyadh — according to the report — appears keen to avoid sliding into open confrontation while it reorganizes its economic and regional priorities amid an increasingly complex regional environment.
