Shadow War: Are the Coalition Allies Signing Saudi Arabia’s Fate in the Yemeni Trap?

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

Media reports have revealed covert movements attributed to parties within the internationally recognized Aden government, attempting to communicate with Western countries without coordination with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. These efforts aim to “rekindle the conflict” in Yemen and the Red Sea region.

The reports indicate that these actions coincide with growing discussions of a new U.S. strategy led by the Donald Trump administration, which may adopt a model similar to the international coalition’s campaign against ISIS.

Despite the Houthi (Ansar Allah) commitment to the recent de-escalation agreement following their operations supporting Gaza, European countries – according to the same sources – continue to support plans for a renewed military presence in the region. The German parliament recently voted to extend its participation in the European mission “ASPIDES” until the end of 2025, while Italy announced the deployment of an additional frigate to support the mission.

The reports hold Yemeni parties loyal to the Saudi-Emirati coalition – mainly the Presidential Council, the Southern Transitional Council, and the Islah Party – responsible for seeking to “create pretexts” to justify a new military escalation, through intensive communications with Washington and the European Union.

Analysts confirm that, despite their internal competition, these parties share hostility toward the Houthis (Ansar Allah) and present themselves as a “pressure tool” in any Western plan targeting Sanaa. Israeli media mentioned last month that the Islah Party and the Southern Transitional Council had sent signals to Tel Aviv regarding the possibility of military cooperation.

While Saudi Arabia shows apparent restraint against any provocative actions against the Houthis (Ansar Allah), questions arise about its awareness of these communications or whether it follows a policy of “temporary tolerance” in anticipation of a suitable opportunity.

Yemeni affairs observers believe that Washington’s re-designation of the Houthis (Ansar Allah) as a “terrorist group” has given these parties a boost in presenting themselves as “indispensable allies” in any future confrontation.

The Yemeni scene seems poised for a new escalation, as local parties turn into fuel for regional and international conflicts, in a game that could reproduce the scenario of the first war with more complex tools, while Sanaa – according to observers – remains the most cohesive force on the ground and the most capable of shifting the equations.