The Collapse of the Riyadh–Abu Dhabi Alliance in Yemen: An Open Struggle for Regional Influence and a Race to Represent Washington

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The conflict between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has entered a new and more intense phase following the collapse of the alliance that had brought them together in Yemen since 2015 — a shift that is reshaping the balance of influence in the region and opening the door to direct competition extending beyond Yemen to broader regional issues.

A report published by the Turkish website Politi̇ks Today revealed that the Saudi–Emirati alliance, formed more than a decade ago under the banner of “supporting legitimacy” in Yemen, has become an increasing burden on both sides. It noted that the alliance effectively collapsed in December 2025, despite efforts to contain its repercussions in the media and political arenas.

An Alliance Ended… and a New Strategy Taking Shape

According to the report, Saudi Arabia is currently working to formulate a new regional alliance, most notably excluding Abu Dhabi from its forthcoming arrangements — whether inside Yemen or across the wider region. This direction reflects a shift from a tactical partnership to an open strategic rivalry.

The dispute is no longer confined to differences within the Yemeni coalition but has evolved into direct competition over influence across multiple arenas — from the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa, as well as in energy, investment, and security alliances.

“Either Mohammed bin Salman or Mohammed bin Zayed”

Circulating assessments indicate that the rivalry has reached an unprecedented level, with regional influence no longer seen as accommodating both sides simultaneously — a dynamic summarized in political circles as: “Either Mohammed bin Salman or Mohammed bin Zayed.”

This escalation reflects a transition from managing disagreements within the framework of partnership to a zero-sum competition for regional leadership amid rapid international and regional changes.

The Race to Represent Washington… and Israel in the Equation

One of the most prominent arenas of competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi is the effort to secure the title of the United States’ “exclusive proxy” in the region — a description that reflects the desire to gain the greatest political and security favor in Washington.

In this context, relations with Israel emerge as one of the most important leverage points in this race, given their central role in reshaping regional alliances in line with the American vision.

Observers believe that the engagement of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE in normalization tracks and security coordination reflects an aspect of this rivalry, as each side seeks to present itself as the more reliable and influential partner in serving U.S. interests.

Yemen: From Alliance Arena to Battleground for Settling Scores

With the collapse of the alliance, Yemen is once again becoming a testing ground for the new balance of power between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, amid concerns over the conflict’s repercussions on both the political and military landscapes.

Analysts suggest that the next phase will witness a repositioning of local forces aligned with each side, deepening polarization and reflecting the intertwined nature of the broader regional struggle.

Ultimately, the Saudi–Emirati rift is no longer merely a divergence in tactics within the Yemen war. It has become emblematic of a broader strategic shift, where calculations of regional influence intersect with the stakes of relations with Washington and Tel Aviv — in a scene likely to witness further escalation in the coming period.