The Economist: Gulf States Fear Iran’s Collapse More Than Its Continuation

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The British magazine The Economist concluded that the last thing Gulf states want at the moment is the collapse of the Iranian state, given the far-reaching security and geopolitical repercussions such an event could trigger across the region.

The Gulf Avoids Testing Iranian Threats

The magazine noted that Gulf rulers are unwilling to test the seriousness of Iranian threats against the United States and Israel, particularly as most Gulf countries host American military bases that could become direct targets if conflict erupts.

“The Day After” Tehran

The Economist highlighted that Gulf concerns extend beyond the present, focusing on a “day after” scenario in the event of Iran’s regime collapse. This anxiety is shaped by the chaos following the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, which led to the breakdown of state institutions and long-lasting instability that continues to affect the region.

Regional Divisions Heighten Gulf Anxiety

The magazine explained that Saudi Arabia is currently preoccupied with complex regional conflicts, including its direct dispute with the UAE and divisions within the coalition in Yemen. According to the report, these divisions extend across the Red Sea to Sudan, where Abu Dhabi-backed Rapid Support Forces are active.

Iran’s Missile Arsenal: A Gulf Nightmare

The Economist stressed that one of the most pressing Gulf concerns is the potential loss of control over Iran’s vast missile and drone arsenal if the state collapses—a scenario Gulf capitals view as a direct and uncontrollable threat.

Fears of Massive Refugee Waves

The magazine also warned that the collapse of Tehran’s regime could trigger large-scale refugee flows toward Gulf oil-rich states, which are geographically closest to Iran’s population of over 92 million, creating enormous economic and security burdens for countries in the region.