The Economist: Riyadh–Abu Dhabi Rivalry Over Yemen Nears the Brink of Regional Military Confrontation

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The British magazine The Economist has warned that the escalating dispute between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could evolve into an open conflict extending beyond Yemen, with real risks of sliding toward a regional military confrontation amid intensifying competition for influence and dominance.

Public Rhetoric Breaks a Gulf Taboo

The magazine noted that tensions reached an unprecedented level after the UAE was described by a commentator close to the Saudi royal court as a “rebellious younger sister.” The characterization sparked widespread discontent in Abu Dhabi and reflected a sharp shift of the dispute from closed-door discussions into the public arena — an escalation rarely seen in Gulf relations.

According to the report, decision-makers in the UAE no longer accept the idea of operating under Saudi Arabia’s political umbrella, fueling heightened political and media escalation and triggering an unprecedented exchange of accusations between the two sides.

Exchange of Accusations and Fracturing Unified Messaging

The magazine reported that Saudi commentators accused Abu Dhabi of serving foreign agendas, while Emirati media figures responded by accusing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of being influenced by Islamist currents. The Economist described this public sparring as a dangerous development, noting that only months ago such rhetoric might have led to professional exclusion or even legal repercussions.

The Economy as a New Battlefield

According to the report, the rivalry has extended into the economic sphere. Western diplomats revealed complaints from UAE-based companies about sudden bureaucratic obstacles inside Saudi Arabia, including trucks being held at the border and work visas delayed.

Observers view these measures as tools of political and economic pressure within a broader struggle to secure regional leadership, as Riyadh seeks to reposition itself as the Gulf’s primary economic hub.

Repercussions Beyond Yemen

The magazine warned that continued escalation could aggravate other regional conflicts, pointing to rising tensions in the Horn of Africa. There, Ethiopia — perceived as aligned with the Emirati axis — stands opposite Eritrea, a Saudi partner, opening the door to potential military confrontation fueled by Gulf power calculations.

Yemen at the Eye of the Storm

The report places Yemen at the center of the rivalry, describing it as the most fragile arena in the competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Divergences in support for local factions and arrangements of on-the-ground influence make Yemen a likely stage for further polarization, adding complexity to prospects for a political settlement.

According to The Economist’s assessment, the current trajectory of escalation does not appear temporary or tactical. Rather, it reflects a profound reshaping of the balance of power within the Gulf — one that could redefine regional alliances in the coming phase.