The Moment of Reckoning Approaches: Will the West Hand Over Israel’s Fate to the Arabs?

NYN | Reports and Analyses

When Israel decided to launch a surprise strike against Iran, it believed that the regime in Tehran would quickly collapse and that the West would fully align with it to impose a new reality in the region.

However, the equation flipped entirely. Facts on the ground proved that Iran is not an easy target, nor a country that could be forced to raise the white flag through limited airstrikes.

Miscalculations

The Israeli strategy was built on a false assumption—that Iran could collapse under sudden pressure like a resistance faction might.

But Iran is not an isolated faction confined to a small geographic area. It is a state with institutions, deep human resources, and strong international alliances.

This reality escaped both American and Israeli decision-makers, who failed to grasp that a confrontation with Tehran is fundamentally different from a quick military operation.

Israel’s Internal Front Shaken

Less than two weeks into the escalation, the repercussions of the strike began to hit Israel’s home front hard.

Hebrew-language reports speak of more than 9,300 displaced people, including 7,000 who were relocated to emergency hotels, while compensation claims have exceeded 32,000.

The scene of mass exodus has returned forcefully. Haaretz revealed that thousands of Israelis have booked outbound flights, and some ports, like the Herzliya Marina, have turned into silent maritime gateways for migration toward Cyprus.

Israel’s Minister of Transportation resorted to temporarily banning travel out of fear that the country would be emptied of settlers—an explicit sign of the panic gripping the so-called Jewish state.

Iran Stands Firm, Israel Bleeds

On the ground, Iran’s strikes have not yet reached their peak. Even so, the stark difference in resilience between the two sides is already evident.

Iran is capable of enduring prolonged battles, while Israel suffers from internal fragility that may not withstand a drawn-out war of attrition.

Food and energy prices have seen record hikes, and economic institutions are warning of an imminent recession.

Meanwhile, Iran’s regime appears more cohesive, backed by active regional alliances and a population engaged in the confrontation from the position of a sovereign state, not a faction.

The West Recalculates

The United States and its allies, who rushed to back Tel Aviv, are beginning to realize that Israel entered the conflict with reckless enthusiasm—and may now need someone to rescue it from the crisis it created.

Despite Western media rhetoric promoting “achievements,” the reality on the ground shows accumulating losses, continuous strikes, and a gradual collapse of Israel’s internal front.

Global Balance at Stake

What is unfolding is not merely a regional confrontation. It may herald a historic shift in global power dynamics.

Either Western powers will succeed in extending their dominance over the region, or rising Eastern forces will impose a new multipolar world order.

In this context, Israel could shift from being the spearhead of conflicts to becoming a strategic liability for its backers. This may compel the West, when forced to choose between competing interests, to leave its fate to the region—where the decisive word may go to the resistance movement that has opposed this entity since it was implanted in the heart of the Middle East over seven decades ago.