The Return of Ships to the Red Sea… The Most Critical Turning Point for the Global Shipping Industry in 2026

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The global shipping industry is witnessing unprecedented anticipation as the gradual reopening of the Red Sea maritime route emerges as the most significant development expected next year, according to Dutch economist Rico Luman, Senior Transport Economist at ING Group. Despite the sector’s partial recovery this year, the disruptions that shook global supply chains continue to heavily influence the decisions of shipping companies.

Luman stresses that the return to the Red Sea is not merely the reopening of a route, but a strategic shift that will redraw maritime trade lines between Asia and Europe after a year of long detours around the Cape of Good Hope and the associated additional costs and exhausting delays.

In his article published Monday, Luman states that “it is only a matter of time,” and that once any major company decides to return, others will likely follow, despite the operational and security risks that have not yet been fully resolved.

Major Gains in Transit Time and Operational Capacity

Luman believes that resuming voyages through the Red Sea will restore one of the world’s most important trade routes, saving over 3,000 nautical miles and nearly 10 sailing days on the Asia–Europe corridor. This reduction in travel time will free up a significant portion of operational capacity that has been consumed by the long detours, which absorbed nearly 6% of the global fleet’s capacity this year.

He adds that shortening distances and time at sea will also reduce operational costs, especially fuel consumption, which surged due to the extended routes, in addition to decreasing greenhouse gas emissions that peaked during the forced diversions.

Temporary Disruptions May Accompany the Return

Despite the major advantages, Luman warns that returning to normal operations will not be entirely smooth. It may bring new disruptions similar to those that occurred when the mass rerouting began. The sudden or early arrival of ships compared with previous schedules could create congestion at ports and container terminals, reviving scenes of delays and shortages of empty containers across supply chains.

He also notes the possibility of temporary increases in freight rates, especially if the return coincides with the Chinese New Year peak season. However, he expects prices to decline later as schedules stabilize and more new vessels enter service in 2026.

Shipping Companies: Cautious and Waiting

Despite the optimism, major shipping lines—such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd—affirm they will not return to the Red Sea unless conditions truly allow. Following the Gaza ceasefire agreement, companies began reviewing their options but have not made firm commitments.

Luman points to Maersk’s recent statement—issued after an initial announcement by the Suez Canal Authority regarding the return of Maersk vessels in December—as evidence of the high level of caution companies are exercising, with the company refraining from confirming any official timeline.

Insurance: The Most Influential Factor in the Decision

According to Luman, one of the most critical reasons for hesitation is the continued rise in insurance premiums for Red Sea transit—an essential determinant of the economic feasibility of returning. He expects these premiums to gradually decline as security improves, or that new mechanisms may be introduced requiring companies to obtain prior approvals before crossing, adding another regulatory layer to transits through the corridor.

The Dutch economist’s outlook suggests that the return to the Red Sea will be a major turning point for the global shipping industry in 2026, though not without challenges. And while disruptions may persist temporarily, the long-term gains—in cost, time, and emissions—make the return an unavoidable strategic choice.

It appears that access to the Red Sea will reopen gradually, but at a calculated pace—one that avoids risks and steadily reshapes the map of global maritime trade with realism and stability.