U.S. Magazine Reveals Ally-on-Ally Conflict in Yemen: Influence Collapses in One Camp and Expands in Another… Washington in a Dilemma

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

Newsweek reported that the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is no longer hidden; it has become a defining feature of the Yemeni landscape, after the conflict shifted from a joint front against Sana’a’s forces into a proxy struggle for dominance over the south and its strategic assets.

The magazine explains that this growing competition reflects the geopolitical complexity being managed by Washington and its partners, as the White House finds itself dealing with two allies who are now working against each other on the same battleground.

The report discusses the expansion of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) and its control of most areas in the south, including ports and vital oil installations—pushing the Riyadh–Abu Dhabi rivalry into a sensitive phase that could redraw Yemen’s political map.

Newsweek adds that this situation has alarmed Washington, which reached out to the foreign ministries of both Saudi Arabia and the UAE but received no direct clarification, as it senses the unraveling of the “joint management” policy it had long relied upon in Yemen.

STC Expansion: An Emirati Card Imposing a New Reality

The report argues that the STC’s full control over southern Yemen points to a major transformation that may pave the way for declaring an independent southern state, amid clear Emirati alignment behind the secessionist project.

The magazine views this development as “a central turning point in the course of the war,” granting Abu Dhabi broad influence over ports, oil resources, and maritime routes.

Analysts interviewed by Newsweek believe the latest moves strengthen the likelihood of Yemen reverting to a two-state configuration, especially as the internationally recognized government grows weaker and its military and political presence erodes.

The magazine adds that this expansion not only reshapes the south but also imposes a new regional reality that Saudi Arabia will not be able to ignore.

Shock in Riyadh: A Retreat Raising Questions About Saudi Arabia’s Role

Newsweek stresses that recent developments delivered a severe blow to Saudi influence.

After years of supporting the internationally recognized government, Riyadh now finds itself losing control over southern infrastructure, ports, and oil fields.

The magazine notes that Saudi withdrawals from Ma’ashiq Palace and Aden Airport signaled the failure of its aligned forces, suggesting that Saudi Arabia is facing an unprecedented strategic setback within Yemen.

It adds that this retreat raises pressing questions:

– Will Riyadh resort to direct military action?
– Will it enter negotiations with the STC?
– Or will it accept a new reality built on an independent or semi-independent south?

The magazine notes that Saudi Arabia is now entering a phase of profound strategic reassessment after losing its most important leverage in the south.

The American Challenge: Ally-on-Ally Conflict Confuses Washington

Newsweek highlights the confusion in Washington over a conflict unfolding between two of its closest regional partners. On one hand, the U.S. relies on Saudi Arabia for regional and energy-related files; on the other, it sees the UAE as an indispensable operational and security partner.

The magazine argues that Washington fears the conflict may create a political and security vacuum that Sana’a could exploit to strengthen its position in the north. It notes that the U.S. administration may be forced to adjust its aid mechanisms and security coordination to prevent Yemen from veering off the “planned trajectory” Riyadh and Abu Dhabi intended to shape.

Newsweek draws a connection between Yemen’s complexities and the tensions surrounding Sudan’s crisis, in which the UAE faces international accusations of supporting the Rapid Support Forces, while Saudi Arabia pushes Washington to intervene—further complicating the regional calculus.

Why Yemen Matters: A Conflict Beyond Geography

The magazine explains that Yemen’s importance to Saudi Arabia and the UAE extends far beyond military influence. Controlling the south means controlling oil resources, ports, and borders that affect global trade routes.

Thus, Saudi Arabia’s loss of these areas is not just the loss of an influence zone—it is the loss of its ability to steer Yemen’s future in a fundamental way.

The report also notes that Yemen’s long-standing internal divisions—dating back before the 1990 unification and then the events of 2014—created fertile ground for strong separatist movements, which the STC has capitalized on to advance its goal of controlling the south.

After the Takeover: Scenarios for the South and the Future of the Conflict

According to Newsweek, the most likely scenario is that the STC will seek to reinforce its authority through:

– direct confrontation with the internationally recognized government,
– or entering political negotiations to impose its terms,
– or moving to declare southern independence.

The magazine warns that any path chosen by the STC will reshape the balance of power in Yemen and possibly across the region.

As for Saudi Arabia, the analysis sees three limited options:

– a military response to regain initiative,
– a diplomatic track to reduce losses,
– or accepting a new political reality in which it no longer holds the upper hand.

The magazine concludes by noting that the party watching these divisions most closely is Sana’a, which may exploit the resulting vacuum to strengthen its military and negotiating position.

Source: Newsweek (U.S.)