U.S. Report: STC Takeover of Hadramawt Redraws Power Dynamics in Yemen as the UAE Advances at Saudi Arabia’s Expense New York Times: The Seiyun Takeover Is “the Biggest Military Shift in the Governorate’s History”

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

In a development the New York Times described as “the most dangerous in years” for Yemen’s balance of power, a U.S. analysis examined the implications of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council’s (STC) takeover of Hadramawt. The report affirms that the unfolding developments undermine Saudi Arabia’s traditional influence and open the door to a redistribution of power in southern Yemen.

STC Expansion Flips the Power Equation in Hadramawt

According to the report, the sudden advance of STC forces into Seiyun and their rapid control of the airport, the government complex, and the First Military Region headquarters reflect a new, more sensitive phase in the Yemen conflict. At the same time, it reveals rising Saudi–UAE tensions over the future of influence in the southern governorates.

Saudi Influence in Retreat… UAE Redraws the South’s Map

The New York Times states that this development poses a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia, which has long considered Hadramawt a natural extension of its national security and a vital pillar supporting the unified Yemeni state project Riyadh has promoted for years. However, the STC’s sweeping control over the governorate weakens Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain a balance of power in the south.

By contrast, the newspaper notes that the UAE is advancing under a clear strategy aimed at building a “crescent of influence” stretching from Aden through Shabwa and Hadramawt to al-Mahra—granting it strategic control over key ports and maritime routes in the Arabian Sea.

Hadramawt: The Most Valuable Card in the Regional Power Struggle

The newspaper stresses that Hadramawt—as one of Yemen’s richest oil-producing regions and a province with a critical geographic location—represents a strategic prize in the ongoing Saudi–Emirati rivalry. Control over it gives the STC a major bargaining advantage regarding the future structure of the state, borders, and sovereignty in southern Yemen.

NYT: The Seiyun Takeover Is “the Biggest Military Shift in the Governorate’s History”

The New York Times describes the events as the most significant military and political transformation Hadramawt has witnessed in its modern history—a redrawing of the power landscape and the removal of actors who dominated the military scene for many years, especially the First Military Region, historically aligned with the Islah Party and previously supported by Riyadh.

A UAE Influence Arc Stretching From the South to the Arabian Sea

The report notes that the UAE views Yemen’s southern coastline as a strategic axis for its economic and security interests and is working to build a broad network of military and political influence extending from Aden to Mukalla. Thus, securing Hadramawt marks a pivotal step in consolidating its maritime presence in the region.

Saudi Arabia Loses Its Strategic Depth in Yemen

The report adds that this STC advance deals a major blow to Saudi interests—not only by shrinking its influence in the south, but also by affecting the future of Yemen as a unified state, a project Riyadh has supported since the beginning of the war.

Potential Consequences for the Future of a Unified Yemen

According to the newspaper, STC control of Hadramawt will trigger a new wave of changes that may extend to other southern governorates, pushing toward a new political reality that could reopen the question of secession and subject Yemen’s future to increasingly complex scenarios.

A Redesign of Southern Power—and an Open Saudi–UAE Contest

The report argues that what is happening is not merely a military operation, but a complete re-engineering of Yemen’s power map. While Saudi Arabia struggles to maintain its last military and political footholds, the UAE works to cement its presence through loyal local forces capable of imposing control on the ground.

Hadramawt’s Shifts Extend Beyond Yemen to the Arabian Sea

The New York Times concludes by noting that these developments will not be confined to Yemen’s internal dynamics but will extend their impact to the security of the Arabian Sea and maritime corridors—making Hadramawt the center of an open regional contest in the coming period.