War in Yemen at the Doorstep: What Is Riyadh Planning?
NYN | Reports and Analyses
In recent hours, Riyadh has witnessed a flurry of military and diplomatic activity, placing it at the center of both regional and international attention.
As tensions in the region continue to boil over — fueled by the Israeli war on Gaza and escalating confrontations with Sanaa — it appears that Saudi Arabia is moving on multiple fronts, delivering messages that go far beyond what is visible on the surface.
Intensified Defense Cooperation with Washington
At the heart of these developments was a meeting between Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman and the new head of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper.
This meeting was far from symbolic; it reflected the growing depth of defense coordination between the two countries.
Admiral Cooper — who chose Riyadh as the second stop on his regional tour following Israel — made no secret of the visit’s aim: countering the threat of drones, a clear reference to Iran and its allies in the region, chief among them Sanaa’s forces.
Cooper’s visit to the Red Sands Integrated Experimentation Center in Saudi Arabia crowned the announcement of the largest live-fire military exercise in the Middle East focused on unmanned aerial systems. According to Saudi media, the drill combined U.S., Saudi, and industrial capabilities in testing advanced detection, tracking, and interception systems — signaling that the next major battle could be fought in the skies more than ever before.
Maritime Security Partnership Targeting Yemen
Simultaneously, Riyadh hosted the “Yemen Maritime Security Partnership” conference with the participation of over 40 countries, where Saudi Arabia announced $4 million in direct support to the Coast Guard forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
This support — backed by European and British contributions — was described by American officials as being primarily aimed at countering Sanaa’s forces and disrupting shipments heading to the ports of Hodeidah.
The conference coincided with intense Israeli airstrikes on Hodeidah Port, prompting many observers to draw a connection between the two events, suggesting that Saudi actions ultimately serve the U.S.-Israeli strategy to pressure Sanaa.
A New Defense Alliance with Pakistan
In parallel to its U.S. partnership, Saudi Arabia strengthened ties with Pakistan through the signing of a “Joint Strategic Defense Agreement” between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Touted by Saudi media as a “historic” agreement, the deal may reflect more than just Riyadh’s desire to diversify its sources of military support. It may be part of preparations for a potential military confrontation with Sanaa, especially after Islamabad had previously refused to deploy troops to the Saudi-Yemeni border during the height of Saudi-led coalition operations, when then-PM Imran Khan famously declared: “The Pakistani army is not for hire.”
Now, Pakistan seems to be back in Saudi Arabia’s defense calculus, signaling a shift in its position — aligned more closely with Saudi ambitions amid a turbulent regional landscape, especially following Israeli airstrikes on Doha.
Reading Between the Lines: Messages and Dimensions
These developments carry multiple implications:
Security-wise,
Strengthening air defense systems against drones and missiles comes in the context of Sanaa’s increasing attacks on Israeli territory, which Riyadh sees as a direct threat to itself, potentially even more so than to Tel Aviv, due to the shifting regional balance.
It also reflects Saudi Arabia’s intention to reassert control over the Yemeni file, after years of strategic retreat — ensuring continued international backing for its policies in Yemen, while using the issue as a bargaining chip in its relations with global powers like Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Riyadh may also be seeking leverage with Israelon the Palestinian issue, attempting to regain regional clout lost due to its controversial stance on the war in Gaza. However, the overarching ceiling remains clear: preserving Israeli security.
Politically,
The defense pact with Pakistan sends a strong signal that Saudi Arabia does not intend to rely solely on the United States, but instead aims to build a broader network of strategic alliances.
Regionally,
The timing of these moves — aligning with Israeli airstrikes on Hodeidah — reveals an undeclared Saudi-Israeli convergence, driven by Israel’s fear of being drained in the Red Sea and at home, and Saudi Arabia’s own concerns about falling into the same trap.
In short, Saudi Arabia appears to be racing against time to rearrange its defensive, maritime, and regional strategies.
While Riyadh insists that its initiatives aim to protect its national security and regional stability, observers interpret these actions as part of a broader strategy serving U.S. and Israeli interests in countering Sanaa and Tehran — a strategy that could come with a heavy price should Saudi Arabia slide once again into reigniting military conflict within Yemen.
On the other hand, a stable Yemen with calm frontlines could provide Saudi Arabia with far greater regional freedom and flexibility.
Yet with the rapid pace of developments, the central question remains:
- Are these moves laying the groundwork for a new escalation in Yemen?
And is Saudi Arabia risking committing what the late Egyptian journalist Mohamed Hassanein Heikal once warned of as the “mistake of a lifetime” — igniting a volcano capable of sweeping the entire region?
