What Are the Reasons Behind the Gulf States’ Refusal to Engage in U.S.-U.K. Military Operations Against the Houthis?

NYN | Reports and analyses

The Arab Center for Studies in Washington stated that the position of the Gulf states in refusing to engage in U.S. and U.K. military operations against the forces of the Sana’a government is due to several factors. These include fears of Yemeni retaliatory attacks and significant popular support within the Arab world, including the Gulf itself, for the operations of Sana’a’s forces in support of Gaza.

The center published a report explaining that “since last November, the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement, known as the Houthis, began attacking commercial ships allegedly heading to Israeli ports or linked to Israel, the U.S., and the U.K., as a response to the war in Gaza.”

The report pointed out that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) are deeply concerned about the impact of the Houthis’ actions on shipping routes, which are essential for the oil and gas shipments that their economies rely on.

Despite these concerns, the report noted that “the Gulf states see the U.S.-U.K. military intervention since last January, aimed at deterring Houthi naval attacks, as misguided. Although these countries oppose Houthi attacks, most GCC leaders view the U.S.-U.K. bombing campaign against Ansar Allah as an unrealistic and dangerous strategy.”

The report confirmed that “GCC countries have lost faith in the ability of the U.S. to provide balanced leadership in the Middle East. Many Gulf officials believe the U.S.-U.K. intervention against Ansar Allah represents a destructive campaign. Gulf governments are increasingly aware that Washington is ignoring the security concerns of the GCC regarding the Houthis and Iran while offering unconditional support to Israel.”

Additionally, the report stated that “in January, some GCC countries expressed concerns about Washington and London’s actions following the announcement of Operation Prosperity Guardian. Qatar warned the West against focusing solely on symptoms while ignoring the root cause, which is Israel’s war on Gaza. Kuwait expressed deep concern over developments in the Red Sea region after attacks targeting sites in Yemen. Oman went further, condemning the use of military action by friendly nations and criticizing the resort to military force while Israel continues its brutal war unpunished.”

The report noted that “it is not surprising that Muscat, Doha, and Kuwait reacted negatively to the U.S.-U.K. military intervention against the Houthis. Oman has never participated in the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis that began in 2015, and Qatar left the coalition two years later. Kuwait’s role has been largely symbolic. However, Saudi Arabia’s decision to distance itself from U.S.-U.K. intervention might be the most surprising.”

The report explained that “previously, Saudi Arabia was the most hardline GCC state towards the Houthis and strongly supported Western military action against them. But today, the kingdom seeks to avoid war with Ansar Allah at almost any cost. In contrast, while the UAE has not directly supported U.S.-U.K. actions, it has also refrained from condemning them. On January 12, Abu Dhabi emphasized the importance of maintaining security in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, taking a relatively neutral stance.”

The report added that “Arab officials in the Gulf have generally avoided publicly criticizing Washington and London on this issue. Given the close relations between GCC members and these Western capitals, it is likely that these officials have chosen to express their concerns privately to avoid major disagreements.”

The report stressed that “this development must be understood in light of multiple factors driving the GCC countries to distance themselves from the U.S.-U.K.-led intervention in Yemen.” One key factor, it noted, is the increasing threat of retaliatory attacks from the Houthis. During the Saudi-led military coalition’s war against the Houthis from March 2015 until the truce in April 2022, Ansar Allah launched numerous missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets, such as Riyadh and Abha airports since 2017, a strike on an oil facility in Jazan in July 2020, and a series of attacks in March 2022 on natural gas plants, desalination plants, and power stations.

The report pointed out that “Riyadh eventually decided to negotiate with Ansar Allah to secure an exit from the Yemeni quagmire, partly due to the impact of these repeated attacks on the kingdom.”

It added that “Saudi Arabia recognized that the threat posed by Ansar Allah would increase over time.” The report highlighted that the Houthis have become more sophisticated in their missile and drone attacks. During the first nine months of 2021, the number of Houthi attacks against the kingdom doubled compared to the same period in 2020.

It continued, “The Saudi government, focused on Vision 2030 and needing massive foreign investment, realized that its unwinnable war against the Houthis undermines its ability to achieve its economic development and diversification goals.” For example, in March 2022, Ansar Allah struck a fuel depot in Jeddah with a missile during a Formula 1 Grand Prix event, reminding Riyadh that industries like sports and entertainment aligned with Vision 2030 require stability and security within the kingdom.

Similarly, the report explained that the UAE has suffered from Houthi attacks using ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. On January 17, 2022, Ansar Allah struck targets in Abu Dhabi, about 900 miles from Sanaa, killing three employees of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Missiles and drones also hit an oil facility and part of Abu Dhabi International Airport that was under construction.

The report noted that “Emirati officials understand the importance of maintaining the UAE’s reputation for internal stability, which is crucial for attracting companies, investments, and tourists. Since nearly 90% of the population consists of foreigners, any threats (real or perceived) to their safety could have severe consequences for the health of the Emirati economy. Thus, calming such security concerns is a top priority for the Emirati authorities.”

Additionally, “this year, Saudi and Emirati officials observed the success of Houthi strikes in southern Israel and Tel Aviv using a version of the Samad-3 drone. This drone required a distance of approximately 1,600 miles to reach its target, meaning that Israeli, as well as American, British, and Egyptian air defenses, failed to detect the drone. With Ansar Allah gaining prominence within the Iranian-led resistance axis due to their actions against Israel, Tel Aviv faces serious security challenges posed by the Yemeni group. It is easy to understand why officials in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are concerned about Ansar Allah’s capabilities.”

According to the report, “public opinion in the Arab world also drives most GCC countries to distance themselves from U.S.-U.K. military operations against Ansar Allah. Even if all GCC governments oppose the Houthis’ naval attacks, there is considerable sympathy among their citizens for Ansar Allah’s actions in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. In the Gulf, a large part of society views the Houthis’ actions as a defense of Gaza. If the GCC countries were to support Operation Prosperity Guardian or U.S.-U.K. military intervention in Yemen, this could exacerbate tensions between the state and society. Given that the Palestinian cause can quickly mobilize Arab citizens, Gulf leaders are cautious about the impact of their responses to the Gaza war on their legitimacy among their peoples, especially as opposition to Israeli normalization has surged since October 7.”

The report also noted that “for example, many Bahraini users of the platform X expressed their rejection of Manama’s role in Operation Prosperity Guardian through the hashtag ‘Bahrainis Against the Coalition.’ Similarly, pro-Houthi messages from the Grand Mufti of Oman, who does not represent the government but is popular among many Omanis, highlight the level of support for the Houthis among GCC citizens.”

In conclusion, the report emphasized that “most GCC countries and some other Arab governments express serious concerns about how U.S.-U.K. military action in Yemen impacts their security. As the first anniversary of Israel’s war on Gaza approaches, and with the increasing likelihood of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, Gulf states will continue to seek to maintain as much neutrality as possible toward Western efforts to confront the Houthis in the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea.”