Yemen at the Heart of the Regional Conflict: Sanaa Holds the Red Sea Key Ahead of a Saudi–Emirati Rift
Foreign Analysis: The Rise of Sanaa’s Role Redraws the Balance of Power in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa as 2026 Approaches
NYN | Reports and Analyses
As the region enters 2026, it does so amid fragile military balances and complex security tests, against the backdrop of escalating proxy confrontations and the expansion of conflict from state borders to vital maritime corridors. While the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon continues to erode under daily Israeli airstrikes, the Yemeni file is witnessing a notable shift in the trajectory of the regional conflict, with Sanaa emerging as a central player in the equations of the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Yemen: The Red Sea Obsession and the Priority of Maritime Security
In recent days, Western media and Hebrew-language outlets have intensified their focus on Yemen as the most prominent security threat to the interests of the Israeli occupation entity in the Red Sea, in light of the military operations carried out by Sanaa’s forces and their direct impact on maritime traffic and on vessels linked to the occupation and its allies.
Leading Hebrew newspapers, including Maariv and Yedioth Ahronoth, highlighted warnings issued by the leader of the Ansar Allah movement, Sayyed Abdul-Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi, who affirmed that any Israeli presence in the vicinity of the Red Sea or the Horn of Africa would be considered a legitimate military target.
The Struggle for Influence in the South: The Saudi–Emirati Dispute Comes to the Surface
In parallel, international reports, including those by Reuters and the Associated Press, have shed light on the escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in southern Yemen, particularly in the governorates of Hadramawt and al-Mahra. These reports argue that developments reflect a latent struggle over influence, ports, and maritime corridors.
Western analyses have also suggested that the UAE’s announced “withdrawal” from Yemen since 2019 has become widely questioned, given its continued military presence and support for local factions loyal to it—confirming that the struggle over the “Yemeni pie” has entered a more overt phase.
“Somaliland”: Geography Asserts Itself
The decision by the Israeli occupation entity to recognize the “Somaliland” region has dominated Western and Hebrew media coverage. The Jerusalem Post addressed the move from the perspective of geopolitical gains, particularly the region’s strategic location overlooking the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Conversely, the French newspaper L’Obs viewed the step as a dangerous precedent that could further destabilize the Horn of Africa and open the door to broader regional tensions.
Most analyses agree that the real motive behind Israeli interest in the region is its geographic proximity to Yemen’s coast—where Sanaa’s forces are active—more than any political or economic considerations.
Western Concern Over a War of Sea Lanes
Western newspapers, including The Guardian and The Week, have argued that developments in Yemen and the Horn of Africa reflect a shift from traditional wars of influence to what they describe as a “war over maritime corridors.” They warned that any new escalation could directly affect global trade and energy prices.
Western circles have expressed concern that the Red Sea has become one of the most sensitive fault lines in the world, amid the growing military capabilities of Yemen and the declining ability to contain the repercussions of the conflict.
Looking Ahead to 2026: Yemen as an Unavoidable Regional Actor
Geopolitical reports, including those by Special Eurasia, indicate that 2026 will be a year of “high-risk competition.” At the same time, Western and Hebrew media acknowledge that Yemen is no longer viewed as an isolated local crisis, but rather as a central element in a regional equation stretching from the Gulf to the Horn of Africa, and reaching as far as occupied Palestine.
Between Sanaa’s warnings against Zionist expansion in the Horn of Africa and the escalating Saudi–Emirati dispute over Yemen’s geography and resources, Yemen appears set to remain at the forefront of international analysis—as the key to Red Sea security and one of the most decisive factors shaping regional stability in the coming phase.
