Escalating Tensions Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE After Al-Zubaidi’s First Statement From the Emirates

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Tensions in Saudi–Emirati relations in southern Yemen have escalated noticeably following the first statement by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council, which was issued from Abu Dhabi after his departure from Aden. Riyadh reportedly viewed the move with high sensitivity, interpreting it as a signal of political activity that could extend beyond a purely media context.

Saudi Reaction to Al-Zubaidi’s Statement

Saudi Arabia reportedly dealt seriously with al-Zubaidi’s statement, despite the UAE’s apparent effort to keep it written and limited in impact. Riyadh swiftly conveyed warning messages through political and media channels, stressing that any political or media activity launched from Abu Dhabi and directed against the Kingdom would be regarded as a hostile act directly affecting Saudi national security.

Indirect Emirati Moves in Southern Yemen

While Abu Dhabi is aware of the implications of al-Zubaidi’s appearance from its territory, political assessments suggest an Emirati inclination toward indirect escalation. This includes maintaining the Southern Transitional Council’s presence on the ground, leveraging the council’s military influence and the stockpiles of weapons distributed to its supporters over recent years.

Playing for Time and Disrupting the Southern Political Scene

According to observers, the UAE is betting on time to rearrange its position in the south by mobilizing street pressure and planning scenarios of controlled disorder that could embarrass Saudi Arabia and complicate its efforts to consolidate influence in southern Yemen without political or military obstacles.

Al-Zubaidi’s Statement as a Test of Riyadh’s Response

Al-Zubaidi’s statement is widely seen as a test to gauge Riyadh’s reaction and to use it as a basis for recalibrating Emirati indirect strategies, alongside efforts to secure new funding channels for such moves, at a time when relations between the two countries are described as being at their most strained.

Saudi–Emirati Relations and the Future of the Southern Conflict

Saudi–Emirati relations are passing through an unprecedented phase of tension, despite continued American involvement aimed at preventing the dispute from sliding into direct confrontation. Estimates suggest that Abu Dhabi prefers to manage the conflict through indirect means and calculated steps, avoiding overt escalation.

Source: Shibh al-Jazeera Net