Did Iran Truly Emerge Victorious from This War?

NYN | Reports and analyses 

By Dr. Jalal Cheraghi

On June 12, Israel launched a large-scale assault on Iran, following a carefully crafted plan aimed at achieving three main objectives: eliminating Iran’s nuclear program, destroying its ballistic missile capabilities, and bringing about regime change in Tehran. These goals were explicitly stated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials.

To execute this plan, Israel carried out a surprise, multidimensional attack targeting several residential areas in northern Tehran. The operation consisted of three main components:

First Dimension: Targeted Assassinations

Israel successfully carried out a series of assassinations targeting senior Iranian military and political leaders. Among those killed were Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force. The strikes also caused significant civilian casualties, including women and children who were asleep in their homes.

Second Dimension: Military Strikes on Strategic Infrastructure

Concentrated military attacks were launched on missile launch platforms, air defense systems, and radar stations in an effort to cripple Iran’s ability to respond and to prevent it from protecting its nuclear and military facilities.

Third Dimension: Internal Destabilization

Israel activated sleeper cells, deployed espionage networks, and even used foreign refugees—particularly Afghans—for internal sabotage operations involving small drones targeting civilian and military sites, scientists, and government officials. The objective was to create internal chaos, destabilize the country, and stir public dissent against the regime.

The ultimate goal of this complex offensive was regime change in Iran, backed by the United States, which reportedly coordinated efforts with segments of the Iranian opposition abroad—especially the faction led by Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah. Pahlavi appeared in a press conference during the final days of the assault, declaring his readiness to assume power.

Iran’s Victory on Both Defensive and Offensive Fronts

1. On the Defensive Front

Iran succeeded in thwarting the carefully planned Israeli operation and defended itself with remarkable effectiveness. The three objectives Israel sought to achieve were not realized:

• Nuclear Program:
  Despite close coordination with the United States, Israel failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Iranian air defenses repelled incoming aircraft, and the nuclear facilities—deep underground and embedded in mountain ranges—proved too fortified for Israeli airstrikes. Even U.S. attempts to target tunnels leading to the Fordow facility—a blatant violation of the IAEA Non-Proliferation Treaty—did not impact Iran’s nuclear capabilities. The country retained its enriched uranium stockpiles, scientists, and centrifuges.

• Ballistic Missiles:
  Iran’s missile systems remained operational until the very end, striking deep into Israeli territory, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. In fact, Iran unveiled new, advanced precision missiles during the final days of the conflict, effectively showcasing and testing their combat readiness under real-world conditions.

• Regime Change:
  This objective utterly failed. The Iranian people, both inside and outside the country, rallied around their leadership and armed forces in a show of national unity. Notably, even segments of the foreign-based opposition voiced support for Iran’s sovereignty during the conflict.

In sum, Israel failed to achieve any of its stated goals, while Iran emerged victorious on the defensive front.

2. On the Offensive Front

Iran’s response was swift and decisive. Just hours after the initial attack, it regained the initiative and launched precise strikes on sensitive strategic targets within Israel using various types of ballistic missiles. These attacks effectively paralyzed daily life across occupied Palestine, from the north to the south.

In the war’s final days, Iran deployed high-precision, heavy missiles capable of destroying entire facilities with a single strike. One such target was the Weizmann Institute of Science, a devastating blow that shocked both Israel and the United States and reasserted a balance of terror in the region.

Under the weight of these retaliatory strikes, Israel began pleading for U.S. intervention. Netanyahu personally appealed to President Donald Trump for immediate support. However, even direct U.S. involvement failed to shift the course of the battle—particularly after Iran launched a direct missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a hub used for electronic warfare and coordination of Israeli attacks. The strike served as a clear message to Washington: American bases and interests in the region are within Iran’s reach.

Through this confrontation, Iran established a dual deterrence equation against both Israel and the United States, proving its ability to reshape the balance of power — not only in defense but in offensive capability as well.

— Director of the Afaaq Center for Iranian-Arab Studies