The Houthis Are Not Iranian Proxies and Are Enhancing Their Military Capabilities Independently of Tehran

NYN | Reports and analyses

The American think tank Brookings Institute has asserted that the Houthis are not proxies of Iran, despite benefiting from Iranian support. The report highlights that Tehran lacks actual control over the Houthis’ behavior, who make independent decisions and often act in ways contrary to Iran’s interests. The development of their military capabilities, such as drone and missile attacks, reflects their genuine independence. The report warns that labeling the Houthis as “proxies” of Iran undermines efforts to effectively counter their threat. Solutions should focus more on Yemen’s internal dynamics rather than solely on Iranian intervention.

In its report titled “The Danger of Labeling the Houthis as Iranian Proxies,” the institute states, “Since the Houthis began their maritime attacks, media and official statements have labeled them as ‘Iranian proxies,’ but this diminishes the threat posed by the Houthis and obscures the appropriate response.” The report adds, “In reality, the Houthis are not a proxy for Iran, despite their receipt of Iranian support. Accurate definitions of ‘proxy’ require that the sponsor has a means of controlling the proxy, which distinguishes a proxy from a partner or ally. However, Iran lacks control over the Houthis’ behavior, and the Houthis do not primarily act on behalf of Iran. This is important because the Houthis have proven to be more unpredictable and aggressive than their Iranian backers.”

The report also notes that the Houthis “are not part of a central proxy system but are part of an increasingly complex network that allows them to work directly with more than ten other groups to share expertise, coordinate activities, and even collaborate on joint attacks. This network contributes to chaos beyond what Iran can effectively organize, meaning that attempts to address the Houthi threat by pressuring Iran or engaging with it are doomed to fail.”

The report also points out that “after a Houthi drone killed an Israeli citizen and injured several others in Tel Aviv on July 19, the Houthis quickly announced that Iran was unaware of the attack until after it occurred, in an attempt to affirm their independence. The Houthis have consistently proven that they retain sole authority over decision-making.”

The report adds, “At times, this has included taking actions contrary to Iranian interests, as they did when they unilaterally declared a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia in 2019, even as Iran sought to use the Houthis to escalate regional tensions.”

The report further mentions, “The Houthis have sought to reduce their reliance on Iranian weapons by securing critical parts from China, developing independent funding strategies, and seeking military support from Russia. In this context, they have also improved their ability to manufacture weapons locally in Yemen and refine their expertise in new weapons.”

The report continues, “These developments have been practically tested in battle, which Iran has not experienced. In recent months, they have rapidly developed their use of unmanned surface vessels, leading to the sinking of a Greek coal ship in June.”

The report emphasizes that “the Houthis’ independence from Iran is crucial, as it makes them more willing to escalate than Iran.” It also stresses that “the Houthis are less susceptible to U.S. and international pressure, which gives them the ability to take greater risks.”

The report notes that “after years of the Saudi-led air campaign, the Houthis have become adept at shielding their arms supplies from airstrikes, which has made recent U.S. and British strikes ineffective in significantly degrading their offensive capabilities.”

The report also adds, “Moreover, the Houthis are less exposed to international sanctions, as they operate largely outside the international financial system. While Iran faces economic challenges and internal strife due to sanctions, Yemenis are living through one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, making them more adaptable to economic deprivation.”

The report points out that “the conflict in Yemen has become normalized, which is different from the situation in Iran. The Houthis have presented themselves as defenders of Yemen against external aggression, a narrative that relies on the continuation of the war for years. This aggression initially came from the Saudi-led coalition, but this year, the narrative has expanded to include the United States, and after January 20, Israel, which is considered the most urgent enemy by the Houthis and their supporters.”

The report continues, “In this way, Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Yemen in July will significantly strengthen the Houthis’ resolve, motivating them to continue and possibly expand the conflict against Israel even after a ceasefire in Gaza.”

The report clarifies that “focusing on Iran when analyzing Houthi attacks hinders the understanding of the complex network that links them to other Iran-backed groups.” It also notes that “the Houthis, through their direct cooperation with many of these groups, pose a greater and more widespread threat, a threat that may or may not include Iran.”

In this context, the report adds that “the Houthis announced in June their responsibility for a joint attack with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on Israel’s Haifa port.” The report indicates that “these coordinated attacks from multiple directions could become more frequent, complicating defensive efforts.” It also affirms that Houthi cooperation could extend beyond the Middle East.

Regarding the impact of the attacks on the shipping industry, the report confirms that Houthi attacks have deterred major companies from sailing through the Red Sea, leading to diversions to longer and more expensive routes, with significant implications for the industry. It notes that container shipping costs have increased nearly fourfold since the attacks began, according to the Drewry World Container Index.

The report continues by stating that “this interconnected network leads to faster proliferation of weapons and expertise. The Houthis have used years of war to hone their skills, improve and develop their techniques, and experiment with weapon modifications, enabling them to send drones over distances exceeding 1,600 miles and sink ships using unmanned boats.”

The report explains that “the direct involvement of the Houthis with groups like Hezbollah, which has faced similar battles with its more powerful neighbors, has played a major role in their development. Currently, the Houthis may transfer this expertise to other groups in the Middle East and Africa, significantly increasing the regional threat.”

The report states, “Countries have repeatedly sought to resolve the Houthi threat by pressuring Iran, based on the assumption that Iran controls them or can radically influence their behavior. However, the Houthis’ efforts to reduce their reliance on Iran, along with the broad nature of the network of Iran-backed groups, suggest that they will continue their activities even if Iranian support ceases.”

The report clarifies that “the détente agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, signed in March 2023, reflects a flaw in this approach. Despite hopes that the agreement would help resolve the Yemeni conflict, this goal has not been achieved.”

The report adds, “China’s mediation in the agreement coincided with a year-long UN-brokered truce, which helped reduce Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. However, it was the agreement with Yemen, not Iran, that helped the Saudis de-escalate.”

The report concludes, “The Saudis realized that engaging with Sana’a is the key to solving the problem, not Tehran.”

The report also adds that “Israel and other countries, which have seen the Houthis as part of the Iranian threat, have not yet learned this lesson, nor has China, which is trying to pressure Tehran to change Houthi behavior in the Red Sea.”

In conclusion, the report states that “there is no easy solution to dealing with the Houthi threat, and the solution requires eliminating their ability to carry out devastating attacks, which the large Saudi-led coalition, along with U.S. and British strikes, has so far failed to achieve.”