US Website: Underestimating Yemen’s Resolve Could Lead to More Complex Scenarios in the Red Sea
gCaptain warns that the Sana'a government forces' determination to disrupt Saudi oil trade could be the decisive factor, amid a significant decline in tanker transits through Bab el-Mandeb and growing fears of expanding maritime escalation.
NYN | Reports and Analyses
The American maritime news website gCaptain warned against underestimating the ability of the Sana’a government forces to maintain pressure on Saudi-linked maritime traffic. The site emphasized that the most impactful factor lies not in military capabilities alone, but in the sustained resolve to exert pressure aimed at ending the blockade.
The website noted that the drone attack targeting Egypt’s Port of Damietta—despite no group claiming responsibility—has raised growing concerns over the potential spread of tensions to new maritime corridors. The ongoing ambiguity surrounding the perpetrator further complicates the region’s security landscape.
Experts: Escalation Could Extend Beyond a Single Maritime Corridor
The report quoted Ian Ralby, a maritime security expert and CEO of IR Consilium, stating that the crisis could rapidly evolve from threatening a single maritime choke point to endangering multiple corridors simultaneously. Ralby explained that the interplay among geopolitics, military tactics, and regional strategies makes escalation scenarios far more complex than initially anticipated at the onset of the conflict.
Ralby added that many current scenarios were not part of initial estimates, forcing shipping companies and stakeholders to continuously reassess risks.
Significant Decline in Oil Tanker Transits
Citing data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence, the website highlighted a 40.7% drop in oil tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20 and July 26 compared to the previous week, along with a 6% decline in tanker traffic through the Suez Canal.
The report also tracked several vessels altering their routes and turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when entering Saudi ports, reflecting heightened security anxieties among shipping firms.
“Resolve” Takes Precedence Over Military Capabilities
Ralby stressed that focusing solely on the military assets of the Sana’a government forces fails to capture the full picture. He argued that the determination to continue disrupting Saudi maritime trade represents the most crucial factor in the escalation equation.
He added that sinking a single vessel could produce a far greater strategic impact on shipping than numerous missile strikes. According to his assessment, Yemen has managed to rebuild a significant portion of its military capabilities following the 2025 US campaign, making its current capacity larger than before, alongside expanding its network of relationships with armed groups and criminal networks in the Horn of Africa.
