Sana’a Hints at a “Second Phase” of Escalation: Border Fronts and the Saudi Heartland in the Crosshairs

NYN | Reports and Analyses 

The confrontation between Sana’a and Riyadh is heading toward a new phase of escalation, according to a report by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar. Informed sources reveal that Sana’a is preparing to move to the “Second Phase” of military operations, following the establishment of three equations that the paper claims Yemeni forces enforced over the past few weeks.

According to the report, these equations began with exerting pressure on Saudi-linked maritime traffic, progressed to targeting military troop concentrations, and involved direct responses to what Sana’a describes as violations of its airspace—all while Sana’a raises its demands in exchange for halting the escalation.

Three Military Equations Confronting Saudi Arabia

Al-Akhbar explains that the first equation is “blockade for blockade,” implemented by placing restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping across maritime zones stretching from the southern to the northern Red Sea, passing through the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

The second equation focuses on targeting Saudi assembly points in areas witnessing military movements across the Yemeni arena, according to sources cited by the newspaper.

The third equation centers on “deterrence and direct response,” linking any breach of Yemeni airspace to retaliatory strikes targeting sites and facilities deep within Saudi territory, based on the narrative provided in the report.

Raising Demands to Stop the Escalation

In parallel with military developments, the newspaper notes that Sana’a has raised its requirements for ceasing operations against Saudi Arabia. Brigadier General Yahya Sarea emphasized that ending the escalation is contingent upon stopping what Sana’a terms as aggression, ending foreign military presence, halting support for local pro-Riyadh forces, and enabling Yemenis to utilize their country’s resources.

Al-Akhbar recalls the demands put forward by Sana’a at the onset of the maritime escalation, which relate to implementing terms reportedly agreed upon within the UN “roadmap.” Most prominent among these are lifting restrictions on air and maritime traffic, paying state employees’ salaries according to the 2014 payrolls, resolving the prisoner and detainee file, and reopening roads between provinces.

Unused Military Options

The newspaper views recent developments as an indicator that the confrontation could shift to a more intense level, citing observers in Sana’a who point to military options that sources claim were not utilized during the first phase.

Military sources quoted by Al-Akhbar stated that the upcoming phase could be “far more painful” for Saudi Arabia, raising the possibility of shifting the confrontation to the Kingdom’s southern border, including executing ground operations in border regions if troop mobilizations and escalation persist.

Saudi Mobilization Heightens Risk of Escalation

The report links these threats to field developments, pointing to Saudi troop concentrations along the West Coast as well as in the Marib and Al-Jawf Governorates.

In response, calls are mounting within Sana’a to counter these moves by opening fronts along the Kingdom’s southern border. This could broaden the scope of the confrontation and open a far more hazardous trajectory if mutual military build-ups continue.

According to Al-Akhbar’s assessment, moving to the “Second Phase” remains tied to the course of field and political developments, while the southern border and the Saudi heartland appear to be the most prominent potential theaters for escalation should containment efforts fail.